Global Market Watch Nov. 20th, 2013
The Global Market Watch has been posted for the close of November 20, 2013.
The Tree has been Cut – Electronic Money Will Force an Underground Economy based on Barter
QUESTION:
Martin,
I’m trying to wrap my head around a couple of things…
One of your recent blog entries mentioned, “The role of the metals will be as an alternative currency to ELECTRONIC when they terminate “printing” paper money,” and “The only real role for gold will be as an alternative currency not to the paper dollar – but to the electronic dollar. What maybe more practical is silver coins.”
I’m trying to wrap my head around what this will mean for:
1. the mining companies and even exploration companies
2. the price of gold in the future (3qtr 2015 and beyond). It would seem all “bars” would be pointless at that point but also why wouldn’t governments just say it was illegal to own or use in transactions. And if you have to purchase gold or silver coins using electronic money, everything will be trackable.
Thank you,
S
ANSWER: I agree that perhaps silver coins will be better for they will provide the small change for everyday transactions. But we have to understand that moving to anELECTRONIC currency is extremely drastic and profound with a ripple effect that may be off the charts. This will eliminate panhandlers unless they carry a machine to accept credit cards. This will have a profound impact upon all illegal activity from drugs, guns, to gambling and prostitution. Perhaps private tokens will resurface like the ancient Roman Prostitute Tokens when there was a shortage of money. You can bet every law-enforcement agency is keenly behind this move to electronic money because they can track everything and the taxman jumpith for joy.
The logical solution will be the ONLY real role for precious metals to become an alternative currency accepted more widely among the population. Why? Because they will sell this idea of electronic money to Europe and everyone else as well in order for it to work. There cannot be paper currency from Canada, for that will begin to circulate in the US black market just as dollars flooded Russia and China.
People do not realize but diamonds have started to emerge as an alternative form of money. Why? You can transport it without the scanners picking up the cash with the metal strips in them, and they do not set off the metal detectors as precious metals. This trend of diamonds starting to substitute as money demonstrates the BARTER economy is not far behind.
The ONLY thing will be BARTER. That is where precious metals in some recognizable form becomes practical. Do not expect hyperinflation or some other nonsense. The sales pitches by the Gold Promoters are no different today from what they said for 19 years in a bear market. It is always just gold being manipulated so they do not have admit they have been full of shit. History is by no means in support of ANY of their claims.
The tree has been cut. The only question remains will it fall to the left, where we retain some sense of human rights, or will it fall to the right where we are headed into complete authoritarianism as Germany did accepting Hitler following the Hyperinflation. So far, the NSA and other agencies are clearly demonstrating we are headed into authoritarianism with great speed. Will human rights fade for 52 years? We are fighting for the future of our children.
Alistair Cooke – Prophet or Historian?
Alistair Cooke was a great historian. He saw cycles also within history. This is a short clip from 1973 explaining that indeed it is the same cycle over and over again.
Computer Intelligence – Judging People
QUESTION: Martin,
I am absolutely fascinated with the work that you have done in the field of computers. I am in “Business Intelligence” and we have a difficult enough time trying to forecast demand for products. Your work and foresights are astonishing. I could only wish that I could sit under your training for a month! I’d then be the second smartest person on the planet!
In your article today you said the following “Consequently, machine learning is all about learning how humans do by judging the future based on what was our experience in the past.”.
In the past you have stated that people react to their circumstances based upon their previous experiences. In the United States many of us think that the Great Depression will happen again so we prepare/defend for that reoccurrence. In Germany you have said that they remember the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic and prepare/defend for that reoccurrence. How is your computer model able to reflect how humans from all over the world will respond to any given circumstance if all of us have different reactions to any one action? Does it roll up all responses in to a singular response?
Sincerely,
MM
ANSWER: Yes, the US turns always to stimulating because of the Great Depression whereas the Germans scream for austerity because of their past experience with the hyperinflation of the revolutionary government. Each sets off a chain reaction of how they respond to markets and economic changes. It is self-evident right now in the demands for austerity in Europe, yet they are creating massive unemployment and social unrest which is precisely what we experienced during the Great Depression.
How does the computer judge people? That took me perhaps 10 years to figure out. The first instance. We had a major bank in Lebanon as a client. They discovered the Lebanese pound data in an old ledger. They asked if we could create a model. We did. By the time we finished, the computer forecast the collapse of the currency in 8 days. I was shocked at the forecast, but it is NEVER my personal opinion that counts – it is just the facts. I gave the client the computer forecast I thought was crazy. They did not flinch and asked what currency should they move into. I said the Swiss. Precisely 8 days later the War of Camps began.
I saw this computer predict the Iran Iraq War. Minor wars in Africa and I began to look back in time and discovered the same results for World War I and II, Vietnam, Cuban Missile Crisis, Suez Canal Crisis etc. I began to understand ONLY through observation that capital will try to move aware from the conflict. Hence, it began to make sense. So by 1998, I fully understood how the computer was accomplishing this amazing ability – capital flows. So I confidently stood up in our 1998 WEC in London and said Russia was about to collapse and that was the Long-Term Capital Management bailout.
I need not know the fundamental reason why the US acts differently from Germany. It is reflected in the data. Their actions correlate differently as if the two are on a seesaw where one is up and the other is down. I appeared on FNN (now CNBC) in the early 1980s with Walter Bressert. I gave our forecast that the British pound would collapse from the $2.40 level to test par by 1985. That sounded like an insane forecast. The journalist turned to Walter and asked his opinion. Walt said he would not bet against our computer. The pound fell to $1.03 in 1985.
This was why I had to communicate with this time on a human level asking it questions because I was shocked by the results myself. I could ask the computer why was the pound going to crash. It stated the British economy was inverting and lining up with US, Canada, and Australia counter-trend to Europe. When I asked on what basis was such a forecast being made, it show me the change in capitl flows derived from the introduction of the North Sea Oil.
Another read asked: “However as regards your computer model how do you avoid “the rubbish in rubbish out problem” when so much official and other data is regarded as suspect?”
The answer to that is two-fold. First we use raw data, and two, currency movement reflects the capital flows. The government can alter the statistics all it wants, but it cannot hide the truth. The trend is the trend and the markets will reflect that. But more importantly, people react not to DATA, but to anticipation of such DATA. The capital flows are currency movement rather than specific reactions to fake data.
Obamacare – Intentional Screwup or Incompetence?
QUESTION:
Is it possible for them to mess-up the Affordable Care Act on purpose to blame private healthcare providers in order to bring about the single payee system?
Thanks,
T
ANSWER: In all honesty, this is just sheer incompetence. I was just asked if I would ever consider a job as chief economic adviser. The answer is no. Truthfully, there are competent people I know, but everyone has the same feeling. If you took such a job, you could not take enough showers in a day to feel clean. It is hopelessly corrupt and not even the press will treat you fairly. Suddenly every girlfriend you had since grade school will be hunted down to extract something negative.
The system does not encourage qualified people. This is all people like Weiner who I believe has a ego problem and politics seems to attract people who need attention not qualified people. If the system was the way it had been originally designed, I would do a 2 year terms, fix stuff, and leave and that would be for my own family’s future. When you can stay there for life, that breeds corruption. If it was 2 years and out, you would not enact anything crazy because it would apply to you.
So unfortunately, this is complete incompetence. The government is incapable to helping people because it is systemically corrupt from the inside out. All agencies should be run privately and then people would get jobs based on competence not because they are related to Barney Frank or whoever.
Obamacare is a huge embarrassment for the Democrats. This was Obama’s signature to be remembered by. They extended everything for one year, just after the House elections. So this is always about political cover. That is it. Forget really caring about you or your family. Career politicians are not capable of such emotion these days based upon the majority (with few exceptions).
Gold Manipulation?
QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
You just wrote, “But rationally looking at this, the seller will actually hurt themselves because they are not achieving the best possible price.”
Isn’t that the point, the seller is not attempting to achieve the best price.
Your statement acknowledges this is not being done for profit – so then what’s the reason?
If the trend is known, why can’t manipulation be used to expedite or prolong that trend?
ANSWER: This theory has been applied all the time in every market crash. The problem is they have never found someone who has attempted such a scheme. The danger is you push the price down and you buy but there is no one left to lift it up again because you destroyed the market. It is the short-players the but in the early stasges that make the market rally. In EVERY manipulation I have seen right down to the Buffett silver purchase, I came out and stated “THEY ARE BACK” and were taking silver from $3.50 to $7 in 4 months and were then going to crash it. They know if they get the metals to move up, the Goldbugs cheer buy from them at the top, and then the crash the market EVERY time. This strategy wiped out the Hunts by using them to get every small investor to buy silver and they have paid fake analysts claim it will go to $100. I knew of the Hunts almost 10 years before 1980. Why did everyone hear about them in the last few months? That news wasDELIBERATELY put out to get the average person to BUY, BUY and BUY more so the manipulators can sell the high.
Manipulations work with CONFIDENCE. It is risky to sell something to drive the price down and then you buy at some cheaper price. It is far easier to buy at the current levels and put out fake news about shortages and get people excited to jump in and buy before they miss the boat. This do this to the metals crowd ever time.
These are just excuses that these promoters who told you to BUY are really right, and NEVER wrong – it is just a fake manipulation as it was for 19 years 1980-1999. The say the same mantra even when a market collapses by 62%. In Japan, everyone kept holding stocks because they swore the government would force the price up and save the day. They lost their shirts, companies, and jobs. It is what it is.
If you have to make up excuses to explain the current price action, then you are wrong – NEVER the market. Why keep fighting the trend? It makes no sense. What goes up, always goes down, and then it goes back up again. Anyone who makes excuses that it is manipulation and they are really right – come on. If they were a professional they should have KNOWN when the manipulation would take place. Why tell people to only buy when YOU KNOW there is a manipulation? This makes absolutely NO SENSE! It was my job to warn clients when a manipulation was starting. I did that all the time. The NY Crowd hated my guts for it and have analysts now trying to tell people do not listen to me as they did before so they can dump position on you.
The Roman Goddess Fortuna held a cornucopia in one hand and the other on the rudder of a ship depicting the fact that she could change the course of your future on sheer whim. It was a concept that the course of events can change so never could on a one-way staircase to haven.
I have never seen a DELIBERATE action to prolong a trend EVER, and beside that, it cannot be done. It does not matter if it is gold or Azuki beans. Nothing trades in isolation. So you cannot prolong the downtrend in gold without altering the entire interconnected global economy. This is just again more nonsense. For what? $200 million gold order? Come on. We are dealing in trillions today.
The decline in gold is within the normal time frame of a typical standard reaction. I warned you ALWAYS get this type of correction after 13 years up. The correction is 2-3 years and that is NOT a change in long-term trend – merely a reaction. So the intraday high is 2011 and the highest annual close was 2012. This brings us to the MINIMUM target for a low being 2014 with the max 2015. So nothing has changed. Even the arguments against what I have said remain UNCHANGED despite the fact that the price keeps falling.
So do not kill the messenger. It is time to shed the bias and become a professional trader. I could care less if it is up or down. The object is to survive and make money. So what is the big deal?
Hyperinflation – All Just Hype
QUESTION: Marty; I assume I understand the bottom line comes down to hyperinflation is just hype because it assumes the government will honor its promises. If they are moving to even negative interest rates and we see a rising tide of bankruptcies of cities and states to escape the unfunded pensions, then it is clear you are correct that there cannot be hyperinflation. I am correct?
Thank you
JT
ANSWER: Absolutely. Hyperinflation is a good sales pitch but it PRESUMES government will honor all its promises. There is no indication in history that any established government has EVER done such a thing. They will confiscate everything they can, raise taxes that kill the economy, and the less revenue they generate the higher interest rates will rise forcing further defaults on debts. But you are correct. The trend in the state and local levels WHO CANNOT PRINT MONEY, is to default on their unfunded pension liabilities. At the Fed level, they will further cut entitlements, raising the age on Social Security, and all of this isDEFLATIONARY not INFLATIONARY. The system collapses when people wake up and see there is now way out.
Keynes said you move to deficit spending when DEMAND shrinks in the private sector and then reduce that debt in good times. They spend all the time reducing only when necessary. They have expected the Fed to sterilize what they do on the fiscal mismanagement side, but the Fed, using Monetarism, has also gone to virtually zero rates. Larry Summers is correct that the Fed is screwed if the economy turns down now. His solution is now to go negative and eliminate all paper money moving to electronic virtual money like Bitcoin.
They cannot sell bonds if they hyperinflate, which is why they are constantly playing with economic numbers and raising taxes while cutting entitlements. Veterans are entitled to healthcare. Yes, they give them a number. Who knows if they get seen in any timely fashion. This is the real face of public healthcare when government runs it.
So yes. You are correct. Hyperinflation PRESUMES they will honor their debt. If they do not, it just vaporizes and that is DEFLATIONARY. Do you really trust people like this to honor their debts?
Gold Manipulation or Lack of Liquidity?
On Wednesday there was once again a sharp price fall in gold causing gold trading to stop for 20 seconds. Naturally people are calling this manipulation. But is that really the issue? Is it simply the fact that trading stops because of the lack of liquidity. Who is behind the manipulation is of course not known, just speculated. But the problem may simply lie in a common problem that is impacting all markets – liquidity is simply still at about 50% of 2007 levels.
For 20 seconds, the gold trade was suspended..An automatic stop was triggered after the gold price had crashed due to a massive selling They immediate call any such decline in gold manipulation but nobody has any reason for the massive gold sales. Selling 150,000 ounces with a market value of $ 190 million is not really that big is the overall world of finance. The market liquidity simply withdrew and that is indicative of a bear market. We saw the withdraw of market-makers and liquidity in the stock market for the 1987 crash with the Brady Commission convened to investigate the alleged manipulation. The truth is, not a single such alleged “manipulation” was every discovered since investigations began with the 1907 crash.
All such extreme sell-offs seem to be accompanied by allegations of manipulations. But rationally looking at this, the seller will actually hurt themselves because they are not achieving the best possible price. Every manipulation I have witnessed in the metals has been driving the price UP and spinning the story of shortages to get the people to buy as they sell into every high and then the market crashes. You would not shot a market here in this manner to make money. This is more indicative of liquidation based upon price action without regard to liquidity.
On 12 September and 11 October, the gold trade was stopped for the same reason.Trading on the Chicago Board of Trade is stopped automatically if no more liquidity is available in the entire market. Typically, the five to ten seconds for the trading is stopped preventing price movements that are excessive.
The UK’s Financial Services FSA has started on Tuesday early explorers because of manipulation of the gold price. The gold promoters always claim it is manipulation and somehow not real, yet the price continues to decline slowly spiraling down. There is no “manipulation” organized to force the price down. This is simply a bear market and there has been steady liquidation of commodities in general. A manipulation is apparent only when that single commodity is moving counter-trend to the group.
Is it Alive?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; you are probably the first pioneer in AI. My professor at … mentioned you often. My question is straight forward. Do you believe your system has evolved along the same path as the human mind and if so can it achieve self-awareness and perhaps consciousness?
ANSWER: I take it the sudden rush of questions on this topic came from a conference on Machine Learning in California recently. Forgive me for getting very technical here for the readers not interested in this subject.
The answer is yes and no. Whenever you create a system be it biological or artificial, there is an emergent behavior that evolves giving that system the appearance of intelligence. True, I began to notice that there was an emergent behavior that seems to evolve from cluster management of volumes of data when you allow the system to learn and create its own rules for constructing a knowledge base. These behaviors are fascinating.
I first discovered this when I created a system to mimic humans. I created a program that would interact with a person creating a dialog while remembering everything you said. I created this system in the early 1980′s and gave it to my children as test subjects. My daughter befriended it and to a child it accomplished everything and fully appeared human. It would ask you a question like do you have a dog, what is its name, and the next conversation, it would ask: how is the dog?
Behavior began to appear and this seems to be an emergence that springs from large distributed systems of data. What happens we also experience in our human existence. We may taste some food, then we just have to have it as often as possible for a brief while. We eat too much of it and then suddenly our taste for it declines. The same will happen with a new song we listen to over and over again and then cannot stand to hear it one more time. This is a behavior that emerges and the same appears in computers. It does not make it “alive” but this is actually cyclical development. In any large-scale distributed system of data, there will emerge a cyclical pattern of what data is being referred to most often.
Go to a casino and just watch a roulette table. In theory, every number has an equal chance of winning. But in reality, the numbers will be cyclical. Some numbers will never come up while others repeat. It does not matter what system you look at, it will always revert to a cyclical pattern. This is the secret of nature. Observe the roulette wheel closely. The reason the house changes dealers rotating them is because this changes the cycle on that table. The cycle is not YOUR luck that will emerge from a string of times you might gamble, The house cycle differs with each dealer and that is the key to running the casino. This is why the casino rotates dealers because they fall into cycles and like counting cards, with a keen eye and an understanding of complex cyclical systems, you can see the the patterns emerge. (for you information, if I go to a casino and play roulette, within 15 minutes they come and say they recognize me as a”player” and want my name; casino understand cycles).
What emerges from any system is the unforeseen behavior arising out of sufficiently large groups of raw data. The real father of Chaos Theory was Edward Norton Lorenz (1917-2008) who was an American mathematician and meteorologist. Lorenz was certainly THE pioneer in Chaos Theory. A professor at MIT, Lorenz was the first to recognize what is now called chaotic behavior in the mathematical modeling of weather systems.
During the 1950′s, Lorenz observed that there was a cyclical non-linear nature to weather yet the field relied upon linear statistical models in meteorology to do weather forecasting. It was like trying to measure the circumference of a circle with a straight edge ruler. His work on the topic culminated in the publication of his 1963 paper Deterministic Non-periodic Flow in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, and with it, the foundation of chaos theory. During the early 1960′s, Lorenz had access to early computers. He was running what he thought would be random numbers and began to observe there was a duality of a hidden repetitive nature. He graphed the numbers that were derived from his study of convection rolls in the atmosphere. What emerged has been perhaps one of the most important discoveries in modern time.
This illustration of the Lorenz Strange Attractor is incredibly important and was first reported in 1963. Lorenz’s discovery of a strange attractor was made during an attempt to create a model of weather patterns. The actual experiment was an attempt to model atmospheric dynamics of the planet. It involved a truncated model of the Navier-Stokes equations. It is a visual example of a non-linear dynamic system corresponding to the long-term behavior in a cyclical manner revealing a hidden order we cannot otherwise observe. The Lorenz Strange Attractor is a 3-dimensional dynamical system that exhibits chaotic flow, noted for its interesting shape revolving around two invisible strange points in space-time we call Strange Attractors. The map shows how the state of a dynamical system with three variables of a three-dimensional system evolves over the fourth dimension time in a complex, yet non-repeating pattern. In other words, here is a visualization of duality – what appears to be randomness (chaos) yet simultaneously there is a broader clear pattern of order. The same identical structure appears in light where it is both a wave form and particle, as we see in the economy where we retain our individuality yet at the same time we are part of a broader collective pattern. This is the very essence of the Invisible Hand – or in Lorenz terms, a Strange Attractor.
Biology emerges from the laws of chemistry. This is the same structured emergence. You have the raw behavior patterns that when they combine you get a functioning biological entity. This is what takes place, It is an emergence or raw data that within it lies hidden behavioral patterns that on the surface are complex and we assume is just random chaos. When plotted, what emerges can be absolutely fascinating behavior revealing ordered systems that lie beneath. This is what Lorenz discovered we call chaos theory.
There is a natural order of emergent systems within systems. The placement and prioritization of some data simply cannot be entirely predictable in any linear model. Systems will reach a certain level of complexity and what will emerge are these cyclical patterns as in simply observing a roulette wheel and then it starts to emerge demonstrating emergent behavior. The casino will change the dealer to stop this cyclical emergent pattern that the players will eventually adapt to and beat the odds.
The real difficult part in computing is the mere fact that it can be extremely hard to know what to do with such emergent behavior unless you understand the complexity of cyclical systems. When you construct such massive data systems you will create emergent behavior. It is inherent within everything around us just as we see such complexity in the Mandelbrot Set as seen in this detail.
This emergent behavior maybe sometimes unexpected.The reason for this is simply that there is a hidden order in the surface appearing chaos that springs from the greater cluster of information in a knowledge based system. The sheer scale of the system at a certain level of complexity allows this cyclical hidden order to appear and this then demonstrates an emergent behavior. The key is comprehending this aspect that is totally nonlinear.
I have devoted tremendous resources to develop this knowledge base. The computer records interactions on a grand scale and this is tested all the time. I have rejected outside funding because of this emergent behavior that has allowed the system to even predict war. It took me some time to begin to comprehend how could this system possibly forecast something I had not deliberately coded? It took me nearly a decade of observation before even I understood what was emerging before my eyes. This was in fact emergent behavior within the system that the computer discovered.
There is an overall software application, but this is then layered over the hardware containing the cluster of data and then there are sub-applications that the overall primary layer then arbitrages as they are prioritized with an innumerable number of tasks according to the size of each economy. It may appear to be unstable since there is no linear rule actually being followed. However, everything is changing according to capital flows that result in the movement of capital internationally that defies creating some rule such as the dollar is the reserve currency that like eat some recent discovered food causes us to want more and more until we move on and do not care for it again. Everything is evolving and nothing is fixed.
There is simply far more complexity involved that we can logically order in some linear fashion. This is why I say it is a bell curve and at some point the same fundamental will flip and produce the opposite effect. This complexity distinguishes the process required and defies linear analysis. Honestly, it may take more than a $100 million to finish this project. I may not even live to see the end for it is dynamic in-and-of-itself. My goal has been to provide predictable behaviors within such complex systems that I can achieve self-awareness, but unlikely to achieve self-consciousness.
This sort of fuzzy chaos represents the new norm for massive distributed knowledge base systems. It is a whole new frontier to be discovered. Yes I may be further advanced than others exploring this field. But it has also been my curse as people try to just steal such technology failing to realize that they are unlikely to even comprehend its cyclical complexity with linear thinking. It requires a change in the way we see the world around us and an understanding of cyclical behavior.
AI programming techniques
QUESTION:
Martin -
I have followed your work since I was in college (circa 2008) and am quite interested in the accuracy of your predictions. As a computer science enthusiast, currently working in the development field, I am most interested in your AI computer model of the economy.
Could you elaborate on some of the programming techniques you use to create your application.
1. Did you write it yourself?
2. What language(s) did you use?
3. Does it implement the concept of ‘machine learning’?
4. Do you use neural networks?
5. If you use ML, is it based on supervised learning on unsupervised?
2. What language(s) did you use?
3. Does it implement the concept of ‘machine learning’?
4. Do you use neural networks?
5. If you use ML, is it based on supervised learning on unsupervised?
**I completely understand if these questions are too intrusive, as I’d expect you wish to safeguard your technology. If this the case could you provide a high-level overview? Im always curious as how things work and the ‘art of the possible’.
Thanks
A
A
ANSWER: Hopefully, we will be holding a conference in Princeton after the 1st of the year. We hope to have there a computer terminal where questions can be asked of the computer.
Yes, I wrote the code myself. Most models have failed because they bring in the physics major, the programmer, and the trader. They try to get the team to work to create a model. But Genius fails because each does not understand fully the other’s field. I had the unique fortune of being involved in all three so I could see in my mind’s eye the solution. It was a labor process of love and the core took me about 3 years to perfect and then about 17 years of further development – and I AM NOT FINISHED YET.
The language was primarily basic since I could incorporate modules written in other languages like C. I created much of my own language similar to structures in Prolog which is concerned with relationships and is thus declarative. I thus created modules that filled in as language elements. This was then all optimized in machine language to speed up things even faster.
Yes there is the concept of unsupervised machine learning rather than supervised. In machine learning, the problem of unsupervised learning is that of trying to find hidden structure in raw data. Unsupervised learning is closely related to the problem of density estimation in statistics while it seeks to effectively summarize and explain key features within the data. Some may call this a form of “data mining”.
Machine learning algorithms are generally interested in teaching a computer to learn to complete some task, or to make accurate predictions, or to even behave intelligently comprehending language as well as recognize faces in a picture like many cameras such as Samsung Note II. The key is understanding how we do learn and that learning is being accomplished based on some sort of observations derived from some direct experience. Consequently, machine learning is all about learning how humans do by judging the future based on what was our experience in the past. This is why people typically judge others by themselves. A dishonest person will never trust someone else because they would cheat anyone if given the opportunity.
Supervised learning is the machine learning task typically based upon some predetermined rule. I did incorporate pattern recognition, which I define is somewhat different. It is more like concepts that are the mental categories we form in our mind that help us classify objects, events, or ideas. We construct these concepts building on the understanding that each object, event, or idea in defining it as having a set of common relevant features. For example, concept learning is basically a strategy which requires a learner to compare and contrast groups or categories that contain concept-relevant features with groups or categories that do not contain concept-relevant features. Hence, distinguishing factors between bull markets and bear markets digging out deeply embedded differences that reveal the character of each trend.
Machine learning is a basic core substructure of artificial intelligence. It is merely impossible to build any kind of intelligent system that would be capable of any of the abilities that we associate with intelligence, namely language, vision, or identification without using the fundamental structure of learning to get there. These tasks are otherwise simply too difficult to solve without creating a knowledge base (memory of the past) in order to even ascertain what is possible for the future. We cannot consider any system to be truly intelligent if it were incapable of learning and developing on its own since learning is at the core of any form of intelligence.
Hence my observation – history is a catalog of solutions, yet socially we ignore history every time. It is a core structure of the universe. It is self-referral. We have children who are constructed from the blend of DNA from two people. That is the code that constructs the next generation. It is always referring to the past to move forward into the future. Consequently, the machine must refer to our own human brain to comprehend its construction. Neural Nets I have never seen work quite frankly because something is missing.