Interest Rates
QUESTION: You said interest rates may start to rise in 2013. Is that still on track?
ANSWER: The major high in interest rates took place 1981.35. The typical extended decline is normally 31.4 years or 34 years. This targets the fall after the German elections. The longest would be 2015.
Russia moved warships into the Mediterranean
Next week everyone seems to be moving into the Mediterranean for the week of May 20th, This is getting very interesting.
Forecasting Reports
We hope to have the trading recommendation reports by by the end of the summer now that everything is moved to Switzerland. Since next week is a key target week in many markets, we will have a brief overview on Sunday.
Germany Imposing a Glass-Steagall-Like Act with Teeth
Germany is drawing a bright line between proprietary trading in banks and customer deposits. They are not merely separating the two, but they imposed criminal sentences for directors of banks and insurance companies if they fail to fulfill their supervisory duties in risk management or contravene an array of banking supervision.
Germany will at least prosecute the bankers, unlike the United States. Obama’s green-light policy that has protected the New York bankers is starting to filter around in Washington and the bankers should be worried that they may not be able to buy off the prosecutors again after 2015.75.
The tide is starting to turn largely because the NY bankers have sent the entire world into chaos for their irresponsibility trading with other people’s money. When the economy turns down again, this time the heads may roll.
Part II Metals Report Goes Out Today
In here is the long-term view for gold using the database back to 1264. The prospects for gold bottoming in 2013 are not dead yet. There was a chance for a low in January 2013 but that was broken. What appears to be shaping up is an extension in the overall market. The $4000-$5200 target zone has not changed. A rally up to that area is still within the bounds of normal technical rally. Exponential moves are only possible if $5200 is exceeded.
When 2012 closed higher than 2011, that was basically the kiss of death. That allowed the extension for a 3-year correction to move into 2015. Had 2011 remained as the intraday and highest annual closing, then a correction of 2 years would have been 2013 with a max into 3-years for early 2014. The higher closing at the end of 2012 without electing a bullish reversal expands the time line.