Civil Unrest in Egypt
QUESTION: How does your model predict even civil unrest like this? It is honestly quite intriguing.
ANSWER: True. I have come to understand that fundamental events like this are NEVER the cause of a trend, but the response to a trend. In other words, it is the economic factors that causes the change in social trend. The American Revolution would never have taken place but for the king doing the same thing as the NSA right now – going into people’s private homes searching for whatever they do, and then charging them for whatever. John Adams said there and then the revolution was born. The American Revolution was a response to oppressive behavior of the king. The NSA and Congress cannot see what they are doing is abusive, demeaning, and lowers the respect for them in the eyes of everyone but the sublime fool. Their abuse sets the stage for eventual civil unrest that is then sparked by the economic decline that will begin 2015.75.
This is how Russia and China fell from grace. Every war begins from this sort of economic distress. Communism collapsed all by itself. It did not take any invasion. Government is incapable of understanding the economic behind the trend. It is why we are in the midst of the total collapse of socialism. It is that trend caused by misplaced ideas embellishing righteousness in government that ripples through everything else within society. Man is incapable of planning and controlling the economy be it communism or socialism. Government THINKS it has the right and power to dictate to the people. The people are submissive and will always allow government to exist until it is no longer feasible on their part. Thraymachus was correct and Socrates was wrong. All forms of government are really the same. They seek only to sustain their power.
The civil unrest that we see around the globe is the byproduct of the failing economic structure of a corrupt socialism where government pretends they care about the people, but when that interferes with their plans, then the people are always wrong. It is why government is doing exactly the wrong thing with perfect timing. You must understand that government is power and they will NEVER see themselves as the problem. To them, it is because people avoid taxes and if they could get every penny then they would be OK. But they destroy the economy in the process.
When taxation was first being imposed in England after the Black Death, the people resisted. It suddenly turned from taxing you for the benefit of society to you refusing the commands of the king. He sent in his troops and massacred the people for refusing to pay taxes that the king saw as his divine right of kings given to him by God. The tax rebellion of Wat Tyler in 1381 will forever be remembered as the evidence of government will do to the people always for the sake of its power and taxes. The Bonus Army in 1932 and using tanks in Washington DC against the people. It is always them against the people and only a fool cannot see that objectively.
Rome taxed everyone to death. Courts collapsed and became as corrupt as we are witnessing in New York right now. Eventually, people simply abandoned their real estate for they could not take it with them because they could not afford the taxes and it made no sense to stay there and be oppressed. This is why I say those in the cities are the first to go. When the system reaches that state of economic decay, then we enter into a dark age and you run the risk of a Mad Max event.
I can only hope that illustrating the FACTS and not personal opinion, if enough people start to see the light, then perhaps we can avoid the dark age and blink. In Egypt the army has uniquely stood on the side of the people. That is very rare. They have always been the check against government in that country as a tradition. If we could only be so lucky to have the military refuse to oppress the people then the day will be saved. If not, we are headed toward a total crazy Mad Max event. This is why government is funding robots to create an army that will follow orders.
This is why the NSA is not really looking for terrorists. They are gathering everything to protect the government from the people. They are even developing tiny insects that are robots to spy on people you would never imagine was possible. It is always economics. Just follow the money.
Austria Forces Bolivian President to Land looking for Snowden
Europe still does whatever the USA orders it to do. Like Rome, all roads lead to Washington. It does not matter that the USA is spying on European politicians, it is also in a position to blackmail them so they do as the USA demands. There is no better example of this than Austria forcing the plane of the Bolivian President to land because they thought Snowden was on board.
Difference Between Men & Women & Politicians
It is a fact of life that men cannot shop with women. This is a plot of the course taken by the average woman and a man when it comes to going shopping for a pair or pants. But politicians seem to run the same way. They are incapable of ever just getting the job done in short-order if ever. Politicians also go all over the place.
Well – Happy 4th – Men stay with the Grill – Women take a man one time shopping he will never go again and you will have your space
Brown Brothers Harriman
Brown Brothers Harriman
A number of clients have been concerned about banks. The German Banks may be in far worse shape than most suspect. Because Germany has been seen as the foundation of Europe, with its banking problems, once they crack the Euro does not look very good. The crisis among trading banks leads to a highly questionable place to keep your money. Brown Brothers Harriman is very conservative, but it is not a trading bank. It does not accept even deposits. It is a custodial bank that had no problems during the 2007-2011 downturn. A custodian bank is a place to store your assets. We would not recommend any brokerage house in the USA. You are better off establishing an arrangement with a custodian type bank. Under no circumstances are we involved with them nor do we accept any commissions whatsoever. Yes, my daughter use to work for them for almost 10 years. She is no longer there. So there are NO conflicts of interest whatsoever and no behind the scene kickbacks etc. Apparently, a number of clients have been calling them. This is a fair comment received that explains the bank.
CLIENT COMMENT:
I am a senior operations analyst at BBH and wanted to share with you my experience of the bank. As you may know, it is privately owned by partners who have a substantial financial interest in the bank. As a result, they are very conservative in their business decisions as it is not only our client’s money at risk but theirs as well. I know of no other large bank with such alignment of interests. In addition, client service is paramount and stressed almost daily here at BBH. It is truly a class institution. One of the last ones left on Wall Street I fear.
BBH doesn’t accept deposits like your normal deposit bank, but if your readers have any specific questions or are interested in getting in contact with someone in the wealth management office I will be more than happy to help.
Many thanks,
Chris
We will provide contact information to serious clients
Asset Allocation Blog
We have received numerous requests from old institutional clients that they need help on asset allocation. Even the famous All Weather BridgewaterFund used by pension funds is under water. The asset allocation modeling that we have done for institutional clients over the years is adopting the most dramatic changes how portfolios should be restructured to survive the 2015-2020 period. We are going to see a lot of banks fall. This will include some of the most famous names that will shock confidence right down to its root core. The currencies will go wild and we are NOT going to even see the standard Flight to Quality rushing to government bonds that dominated the 2007-2011 downturn.
Understanding the core and having the data is the ONLY way to survive what is coming. The traditional models always fail because they lack the historical depth to comprehend how capital truly moves. You cannot rely on data for even just 50 years. That will fail to demonstrate all the possibilities that can unfold. You will certainly never catch how capital responds when the confidence leaves the political wings. Comprehending the core v the peripheral economies is mandatory. If you fail to understand that movement within the global capital flows, you will donate whatever you have to the gods of Wall Street.
This is a chess game that cannot be left to opinion. The standard asset allocation models are determined by human interpolation – nothing more. You can only forecast the future based upon your personal knowledge. What institutional clients relied upon Princeton Economics for was the unbiased computer projections that are consistently rooted in data that required a minimum input of 100 years.
Because what we face is beyond what humans would normally expect given their models are hard-wired with presumptions, we will begin a separate institutional blog for this challenging industry and future. Pictured here is the performance of Long-Term Capital Management and what happened to $1,000 invested. Modeling requires data. To avoid the collapse, the computer must be trained in all scenarios.
We hope to have this by September.
ArmstrongEconomics@GMail.COM