The Way of the Future
“Come, Watson, come!” Sherlock Holmes cried. “The game is afoot. Not a word! Into your clothes and come!” There has been some who are upset at IBM’s Watson who they have been educating regarding medicine. Artificial Intelligence is the way of the future for as individuals we learn personally, yet are incapable of preserving and passing on our experiences. The only way to build a knowledge base is to create a computer that retains that knowledge.
We are completing the verbal interface now. We hope to provide a portal into a computer system that will blow your mind. You can ask questions and it will respond for it does understand English far better than as Siri users have come to expect. As IBM has sought to create a medical assistant, since the 1970s, our goal has been to create the ultimate assistant that will provide solutions and a knowledge base in economics that is the driving force behind everything. Do that right, and you will eliminate war.
Plain and simple, if you eliminate each factor one by one, then the one which remains must be the truth. Far too common in analysis, the capital mistake is to theorize before one even investigates for then. what will happen is inevitably what begins is the twisting of facts to prove the theories, rather than theories that emerge from the discovery of facts. This approach leads to 100% failure each and every time.
“Come, Watson, come!” Sherlock Holmes cried. “The game is afoot. Not a word! Into your clothes and come!” There has been some who are upset at IBM’s Watson who they have been educating regarding medicine. Artificial Intelligence is the way of the future for as individuals we learn personally, yet are incapable of preserving and passing on our experiences. The only way to build a knowledge base is to create a computer that retains that knowledge.
We are completing the verbal interface now. We hope to provide a portal into a computer system that will blow your mind. You can ask questions and it will respond for it does understand English far better than as Siri users have come to expect. As IBM has sought to create a medical assistant, since the 1970s, our goal has been to create the ultimate assistant that will provide solutions and a knowledge base in economics that is the driving force behind everything. Do that right, and you will eliminate war.
Plain and simple, if you eliminate each factor one by one, then the one which remains must be the truth. Far too common in analysis, the capital mistake is to theorize before one even investigates for then. what will happen is inevitably what begins is the twisting of facts to prove the theories, rather than theories that emerge from the discovery of facts. This approach leads to 100% failure each and every time.
The Real Anatomy of an Implosion
Submitted by Glen Downs, from Capitol Hill
The Real Anatomy of an Implosion
Today’s “National Journal Daily” – a publication by and for Washington, DC insiders – features an article entitled “Anatomy of an Implosion – How the House GOP’s fiscal plan fell apart”. In it they give their analysis of the House Republican leadership’s futile efforts together cobble a debt and spending bill together that could garner the 50% +1 needed to pass it.
While much was written about legislative horse trading and political intrigue, as usual the Washington establishment has a hard time seeing the forest for the trees. As such, they miss the larger point – namely that the seeds for this ‘implosion’ were sown three years ago when the newly reestablished GOP House majority fundamentally misread the situation they found themselves in.
Republicans failed to grasp the changed nature of the new Republican majority, and thus tried to run their caucus the same way as in the past, which was doomed to be problematic at best. Recognizing the need for change will be a key determinant of success or failure in battles to come.
In 2010, House Republicans were unexpectedly propelled back into the majority by an electorate that still had not gotten over its mistrust of the Republican brand. Yet, the likes of Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Barney Frank, fueled a populist wave that led to a historic Republican sweep. Fear of Democrats triumphed over dislike of Republicans.
For the most part the GOP establishment in Washington did not understand the forces that propelled them back into the majority – and to the extent that they did, they did not like them. Say the words “Tea Party” to long-time Republican powerbrokers and watch the eyes start rolling.
The committee chairmen, staffers, leadership aides, and the leadership themselves ( the individuals who really set the agenda, strategy, and tactics for House Republicans) who took control of the newly-Republican House were seasoned Washington hands, but had little or nothing in common with the forces that – on the margin – were responsible for handing them the reins of power.
Consequently , they didn’t really understand that they were not handed a “Republican” majority, but rather what in parliamentary system would be described as a coalition government. The more monolithic official “Republican” line of thinking seen in the majorities of the 1990s had been replaced with the multiple worldviews of the Wall Street/K Street Republican block, the Tea Party/Main Street Republican Block, and of the emerging Liberty/Libertarian block.
Democrats are accustomed to coalition politics and governing. It is natural for Nancy Pelosi, for instance, to not even dream of taking a particular legislative tack without prior sign-off from the Black Caucus, or the Hispanic Caucus, or any of the other alphabet-soup groups that together comprise Democratic Party.
That style of governing is foreign to the follow-the-leader culture of Washington, DC Republican establishment. I n fact, it was largely resisted – even to the point of refusing to recognize the new post-2010 Republican reality.
The consequences? Over time, efforts to lead House Republicans as if they are not the ‘majority of coalitions’ that they are have proved increasingly less effective. The now-ending debt/spending/Obamacare battle is a case in point.
Failing to fully acknowledge that they are effectively dealing with coalition government partners – rather than an integrated truly single-party caucus – Republicans embarked on an Obamacare strategy that avoided high stakes showdowns, and ultimately forced a day of reckoning with the Tea Party coalition partners.
The decision not to satisfy the Tea Party Block’s desire to attempt to defund Obamacare via the appropriations process in the immediate aftermath of the 2010 election sweep (in which Obamacare was a central theme) sowed the seeds of this week’s implosion.
The GOP leadership, having never felt that previous showdowns were the time or place for a defunding strategy, were faced with the now-or-never Hobson’s choice on the eve of full Obamacare implementation. Risk losing a bruising spending battle with Obama and the Democrats, or risk losing the closest thing to a ‘no-confidence’ vote that exists in our system of government.
The results were inauspicious at best.
What’s next?
The current deal merely kicks the can down the road until after the first of the year. At that time, Republicans will be confronted with another version of “surrender or showdown”. Will that end any better?
It will depend to a significant degree if the GOP leadership comes to understand the nature of the coalition it is leading. Otherwise, get ready for “Anatomy of an Implosion II – The Sequel”
MANIPULATION – Is it a Matter of Definition?
QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
Thank you very much for your blog – I visit daily!
Is it possible that both you and the gold bugs are correct?
I think your argument with the gold bugs may be a misunderstanding.
The problem lies in how you define manipulation.
When a large sale occurs in illiquid hours, I can’t think of a legitimate/logical reason – If you can please advise.
Is it possible that both you and the gold bugs are correct?
I think your argument with the gold bugs may be a misunderstanding.
The problem lies in how you define manipulation.
When a large sale occurs in illiquid hours, I can’t think of a legitimate/logical reason – If you can please advise.
ANSWER: If you define manipulation as just impacting a market for a quick buck that is one thing. If you define manipulation as change the actual trend – that is impossible. The banks with their proprietary trading ALWAYS seek the guaranteed trade. They are goosing the market in one direction or the other. However, that takes place WITH the trend. Trying to change the trend as Japan attempted for 23 years utterly failed.
The Fed also KNOWS it does not control even interest rates. The long-term rates have NEVER been within their ability to change. This is what QE was all about. They bought the long-term trying to bring down those rates and are now trapped. They are so short, and attempt to reverse sends the rates sharply higher.
Do people try to goose the price of a market? Yes. Is a concentrated sale altering the trend? NO. Gold is in a bear market anyway. It did not change the trend. Excusing this as a manipulation and somehow not real causes losses because people then are encouraged to hold all the way down and typically capitulate at the low and then do not come back.
The point is markets are markets. There will always be attempts to goose the price of anything. But this takes place with success when it going with the trend. Floor brokers have often fished for stops. This is true in all markets.
The definition is clear. NOBODY, not even government, is capable of manipulating anything against the free markets, You can goose the market and this is what makes the spike highs. Gold rallied from $400 to $875 between December 1979 and January 21st, 1980. Was that a manipulation? The dealers were bidding it up to suck in everyone they could. Then in silver, they altered the rules at the top and increased the margin to go long and almost twice the margin to go short. Everyone suddenly heard about the Hunt Brothers. I knew about them in early 1970s. Suddenly everyone knew because that is how the dealers sold the high.
The problem with the Goldbugs is simple. Anything to the upside is “real” while anything to the downside is a “manipulation”. Our computer model projected January 21, 1980 to the day more than a month in advance. It was a matter of time and how long such a Phase Transition can be maintained.
Do not confuse playing with amplitude with change trend. The first is common, while the latter is impossible.
MANIPULATIONS – Here We Go Again
Why people refuse to listen is simply amazing. The hate mail stating that gold is being manipulated implying it would be rising in a bull market is just absurd. There can be NO MANIPULATION that reverses a trend no matter what the market is. If there were enough buyers of gold or whatever, nobody can stand in the way of such a market. The Hunts were successful as long as the cycle was bullish. When the cycle turned down, all the buying power in the world would not have prevented a 19 years bear market. The same is true in Japan. The Japanese government swore they would defend the market. They bankrupted the largest fund in the world – the Japanese Postal Saving Fund with over $1 trillion in 1989.
They can create brief rallies against the general trend as was the case with the Buffett buying of silver, yet when it was over, silver fell back to NEW LOWS. There is not a single example of ANY so-called MANIPULATION that has EVER reversed the trend. Prolonged attempted manipulations like that of Japan extend the cycle from what should have been 2-3 years decline into 23 years.
Yes, banks manipulate everything. But that is NOT a permanent manipulation against trend. That is impossible and all the bullshit in Christendom will not produce a single example of any such manipulation whatsoever. If that was even possible, then we would still be living under Babylonian Kings. Empire, Nations, and City States have always collapsed and they too have done everything in their power to sustain their existence.
Why fight the trend? This thought is just as bad as when they have solicited me to join their “Club” to manipulate markets. When I told them Russia would collapse and they showed me that they even had the IMF in their pocket, it did not matter. Russia collapsed and that became the Long-Term Capital Management crisis and the first Fed bailout.
So I have gotten this nonsense from both sides. YOU ARE DEAD WRONG!!!!!!! I do not care who you are – it is not possible. This is why I got blamed for “Manipulating the World Economy” because when they lost, the same bullshit surfaced. It was not because I was right – it was because I was the largest adviser in the world and had more people listening to me than all the bribes they could pay.
Get over it. Stop the nonsense. Gold has declined BECAUSE it is in a bear market. It will reverse when the timing is also right for a bull market. Learn how markets function or donate to the black hole of investment. It is ultimately your choice.