Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Crisis in Context: 'This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,' by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff

http://seekingalpha.com/article/171610-crisis-in-context-this-time-is-different-eight-centuries-of-financial-folly-by-carmen-m-reinhart-and-kenneth-s-rogoff

Reinhart and Rogoff start right out with the following statement: “If there is one common theme to the vast range of crises we consider in this book, it is that excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.” However, “Although private debt certainly plays a key role in many crises, government debt is far more often the unifying problem across the wide range of financial crises we examine.”

And, what is one of the major factors that accompanies this excessive debt accumulation? “A clear inflationary bias throughout history emerges.” Why? “Early on across the world the main device for defaulting on government obligations was that of debasing the content of the coinage.” The modern printing presses have just provided a technologically more advanced and more efficient approach to this process.

No comments: