Gold – Still on Track
No. I have not forgotten about gold. Yes we are making new lows in Nearest Futures. Gee – it is declining with oil that the same crowd swore the number on oil production were manipulated to make people think there was a glut. Then they said prices were declining for the elections. Excuses piled upon other excuses. This is why fundamental analysis is just wrong. You never know if you have all the fundamentals and then there is the plague of bias.
What needed to be said about gold was said in the 2014 International Precious Metals Outlook. The price targets and the timing remain in full force. A closing below $1227 at year-end will warn that gold should press lower despite all the ranting, screaming, hate mail, and fantasy theories how only gold is money, Shanghai will be real gold that will shut down paper gold in NYC, and the perpetual manipulations by banks to keep gold down to support the dollar as if they really cared about that.
These fundamentals have been regurgitated countless times to sucker people in to just buy and hold and when it goes down keep buying forever until you lose the house, car, wife, kids, and the dog. This is like hoping for a miracle cure to appear before one dies. Sometimes, reality is just what it is – a harsh dose of reality. Understanding markets and HOW they are all connected is the only thing that separates the smart sheep from the herd,
We will consider an update blog for those who purchased the International Precious Metals Outlook so as not to undermine your support for real forecasting.
Republicans Tipped to Take Senate – Setting the Stage for 2016?
The various press organizations are now giving a 70% chance that the Republicans will take the Senate. There is a serious deficiency in competence within government everywhere. It appears that the corruption and politics have driven anyone with substance from the field. Who wants to go through all this crazy personal focus if you really are competent? The people who seem to gravitate to politics are those needing attention to verify that they exist. This is a sad state of affairs and it is having the most dramatic impact upon our lives. It is hard to say who is collectively more stupid – politicians or the public who vote for someone really expecting anything to change for the better?
Everything one hears about Obama behind the curtain is so derogatory, he was just Bush Jr in spades. The key Bush players remained in place when Obama took charge and that was very strange. That was the first sign that we may have another man as the head of state whose brain was on vacation. The hopelessly biased press like the Ed Show actually tried to defend Obama’s record-setting gold playing and that he did not even attend 60% of his daily briefings. Ed tried to claim other Presidents had played more golf. The issue was never was Obama doing a GOOD job, it was a comparison to the worst of the worst trying to show he was not that bad. Pretty pathetic to say the least.
Things just have to get so bad that finally someone will step forward and do the right thing. If not – it’s just meltdown time. The Republicans are stupid and will only see their victory for their philosophies. No one will step forward and say they system has to change. A Republican victory may then set the stage for dramatic change in 2016. Why?
Obama is killing the Democratic hopes, and just maybe the dirt on Hillary will surface. She is alleged to be a Lesbian who stays in the closet. When she first took office really running the White House, the Secret Service routinely patrolled the second floor. An agent walked in on Hillary and another woman. Hillary picked up an ashtray and threw it at the agent striking him in the head. When I was first told this story within weeks of them taking office, I said come one – is this what we have to listen to for 4 years? Then the Wall Street Journal publish a tiny article saying that the Secret Service was banned from patrolling the second floor because one was inadvertently injured. That was published with the watered-down version to confirm to all of us who knew the allegation behind the curtain was real.
When the economy turns down hard from 2015.75, there will be one year before the 2016 elections. That will be plenty of time to get politics ready to rock and roll. We may just see at last someone willing to step forward to clean house. They will have to start with the bureaucracy who has been the real president going on 16 years running now.
The Dow Jones Nov 3rd 2014
The Dow Jones Industrials managed to exceed the September high intraday and produce the highest weekly closing, but it did not close ABOVE the September high ruling out a Sling-Shot Move right now. Nevertheless, we still see this week as the target and the key days are today and Friday with a mid week minor target on Wednesday.
Volatility also seems to rise with the election and we may see a real Republican win thanks to Obama. But the stronger the win the more likely Boehner will be reelected in January and he will keep things just as they are.
The price action at this time tends to warn that while we may have a temp high form, (see resistance provided) the overall tone of the market may be that we simply breakout to the upside going into 2015.75. This does not yet rule out any extension into 2017. We will be providing a detailed report on World Share Markets soon. Still, it appears that we will have a turning point this week so do not expect a run-away market to the upside just yet.
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