Thursday, May 2, 2013

MORE MARTIN ARMSTRONG BLOG POSTS TODAY


Its Global – Even The Brady Commission Revealed that in 1987

I have told the story how after objecting to the formation of G5 in 1985 warning that they would increase volatility, create a crash within 2 years (2.15 years), and destabilize the global economy, the White House responded that no one agreed with use about volatility would rise or this would lead to a crash. Princeton Economics preceded both Goldman Sachs & Salomon Brothers who entered the international futures markets only in the mid-1980s. Salomon Brothers was taken over by PhiBro, the big commodity trading firm that made a fortune on the metals. Goldman Sachs, sought to stay in the game and bought J.Aaron, another commodity firm. These became the reverse takeover of Wall Street for then the market manipulation schemes common to futures and commodities introduced Wall Street to derivatives. Lloyd Blankfein  head of Goldman came from the J. Aaron side. This movement led to Salomon Brothers getting caught manipulating the US Treasury Auctions illustrating the culture that took over Wall Street and has dug in its heels.
Beyrl-Sprinkel
Nevertheless, because we had two clients on the Brady Commission and we warned this G5 attempt to manipulate the trade deficit lower by lowering the value of the dollar with no consideration as to what would happen to foreign investors in the USA, they set in motion the 1987 Crash, caused the capital to concentrate in Japan creating the Bubble in 1989, and gave capital its first taste of blood. This was why I was summoned to Beijing following the Asian Currency Crisis because it was obvious outside the USA what was going on.
BradyComm
We provided all the important research for the Brady Commission upon request to demonstrate it was no isolated domestic event. The Brady Commission report came out and concluded:
 In short, the October market break had ramifications in a wide variety of global financial markets.
Expertise in individual market segments is, therefore, not sufficient for effective response to intermarket crises. The October experience demonstrates that the intermarket agency must consider the interactions among a wide variety of markets encompassing stocks, stock index futures, stock options, bonds, foreign exchange and the credit and banking system, in both domestic and foreign markets.
The critical requirement for the intermarket agency is broad expertise in
the financial system as a whole because the greatest potential risk of intermar­ ket failure is to the financial system as a whole, rather than to individual market segments. Financial system expertise is required to deal with a financial system crisis. 
The point that needs to be made is despite the extensive investigation that was steered at least in the right direction to see the world globally, both government, the talking heads, and the vast majority of analysis just does not grasp the global infrastructure of the economy. So yes, the Wall Street Journal reported that many viewed me as a Renascence Man (Aug 9, 2000) and Barronsacknowledged I was famous for calling the 1987 Crash. Nevertheless, all my yelling, screaming, and testimony before Congress, has still not made any headway in expanding their understanding of the global economy enough to change policy. They all read me and keep one eye open because they are aware of my experience. Yet the world is still married to Marx & Keynes because they advocated government possess the scepter of power. No one likes to hear – Hey! You are the problem! Let it go!
OutsideBox
Change is coming. But very reluctantly. There are people who hate my guts and try desperately to make this personal as if their opinion is better than mine. I fail to understand this since I report the trend, not OPINION. Only a fool will try to fit the world into a preconceived idea. OPINION is prone to human error and we are all human. The only way to move forward is to explore and let the chips fall where they may. This is the only way to advance or we will remain doomed to repeat the past when we cannot see outside the box. Having clients around the world – I was forced to see everything from everyone’s eyes. For that – I thank you.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S BLOG POSTS TODAY


VIX & Volatility Ahead

VIXCBE-Monthly 5-2013
QUESTION: Do you run your model on the VIX and can you run your volatility you illustrated at the Princeton Seminar on volatility?
ANSWER: Yes. It does not matter. Strangely enough if you create a index of stocks that only closed higher on Tuesday, it amazingly conforms to the 8.6 cycle, technical analysis, and volatility in its various flavors as we demonstrated at the conference. So yes, we run our volatility on the VIX as well.
VIXFOR-M
The decline in volatility in general since the spike high in 2008 will turn by January 2014. This means that we will begin a upward cycle in general volatility as measured by the VIX. Indeed, look at the VIX on the CBOE. The crash in volatility conformed perfectly with the 8.6 frequency bottoming precisely in 17.2 months (2 x 8.6).

Countertrend Reaction v Reaction

NIKCRASH
QUESTION: You seem to be the only person who distinguishes between a “countertrend reaction” and a “reaction”. Can you illustrate the difference?
ANSWER: Reactions are typically 2 to 3 units of time regardless of the level be it daily up to yearly. They are part of the “trend” and normally count as part of the trend cyclically. ACountertrend Reaction is a move that exceeds 3 units of time. This is normally a change cyclically speaking and thus is a separate cycle altogether. This can be easily illustrated by the 1989 Crash in Japan. The decline conformed to our Pi Cycle of 31.4 weeks plus the 8 week Countertrend Reactio

European Central Bank Cuts Key Interest Rate by Quarter Point

BREAKING NEWS Thursday, May 2, 2013 8:00 AM EDT
The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low Thursday, a mostly symbolic move that could lift morale in the euro zone but is unlikely to jolt the Continent out of recession.
The E.C.B., meeting in Bratislava, Slovakia, cut its benchmark interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.75 percent, which was already a record low. It was the first change in interest rates since July 2012 and the bank’s fourth cut since Mario Draghi took over as president of the E.C.B. in November 2011.

READ MORE »

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/03/business/global/03iht-euro03.html?emc=na

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S BLOG POSTS TODAY


Site is Being Moved to Switzerland

Zug Building
The site and blog are moving to Switzerland for security purposes. The main site there is Princeton-Economics.COM. This site will be redirected for the blog and we will be starting paid regular services from there. TheGlobal Market Watch is also ready. When the site is functional and all client names will be secure in Switzerland, which by law requires all servers to be maintained in Switzerland containing client information (we do not sell client names EVER), we will announce the start this summer. We will have the portfolio monitoring service up as well where you can have the computer keep track of your investments and notify you on any change in trend. Once that information can be secured, then the service will begin.
The Advisory Board and International Think Tank with a global collaboration effort will also begin by year-end. We are finalizing a position to head that aspect with someone who has had 30 years experience on Capital Hill behind the curtain to head up dealing with all governments globally. This will be the first International Think Tank and we will open this to membership rather than accepting grants with strings attached. The number one goal is to maintain independence and to provide the research for all governments globally when things start to get really bad. The tree has been cut. It now depends upon which direction does it fall – totalitarianism or freedom & human rights. We appreciate all the interest in joining the board, and we are moving in this direction to bring together experienced people from around the world for the first time ever rather than just theory. We all know something is seriously wrong. Governments generally remain in denial until it is too late. It is unrealistic to assume we can stop what must take place. The object is to provide an alternative when we crash and burn.

Real Estate beats Gold as #1 Investment & Euro Yen Recap

1933_Virginia-land-auction
Land Auction Great Depression
The Gallup Poll is out surveying the investment sentiment of American investors. Gold has held that top slot up until now. Gold has now fallen for the first time to the second position as investors return to the old historical investment sector – real estate. Even in Europe people are starting to move toward real estate as we should see a bounce into 2015. The surge in gold coin sales has not proven to be new investors, but those already in the market bargain hunting. Any surge bringing in new investors will need to wait for the next rally.
So far everything appears on track with volatility rising making counter trend reactions strong yet going nowhere as in the yen and euro. In the Euro for example, the Weekly Bullish is in the 13900 zone which is far from the recent low reflecting the amount of volatility within the system.
JY0501-D
The Japanese yen declined and the dollar made an effective double top at the 99.93 level. This is a big psychological area being par 100. Japanese institutions took profits selling foreign assets since it was the first 20% profit they have seen in 23 years. Nonetheless, only a daily closing BELOW 92.75 would suggest some follow-through. Here we will see most likely a 3rd test of the 100 level, and it may be the 4th time that we plow through it. The highest monthly closing has been 97.40 on the cash. A monthly closing above 97.76 will signal we are starting to breakout, Technical support begins at mid 9300 area with the critical intraday support at the 9000 level. This double top formation is important for it will show the dollar rally that will put the most pressure on the entire global economic system and eventually force the US economy into recession starting 2015.75.
The best trading strategy under these conditions is to sell highs in the Euro according to time against reversals where the risk is the least. In the yen, buy the dollar against support below or on the breakout when that unfolds. Both the euro and the yen are reflecting that we are indeed in a bull market for volatility and when everything turns again with 2015.75 on the ECM, the volatility will be twice as high as what we experienced between 2007-2009. That is where we can see the next phase transition in gold. Don’t forget, gold has yet to test the 1980 high adjusted for inflation which standards at about $2300 level. So forget the hype. Gold has NOT broken out yet nor has it truly made new highs in REAL terms – only nominal.

George W's $250 Million Can of Whitewash

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article34793.htm

JIM HIGHTOWER'S BLISTERING ATTACK ON GEORGE W. BUSH'S PRESIDENCY AND THE ATTEMPT TO MAKE IT APPEAR OTHER THAN THE DISASTER IT WAS.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

ARTHUR SILBER: The Klown Quotient Increases

http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2013/05/the-klown-quotient-increases.html

Two further points should be kept in mind. Although the story of what happened in Boston is now undergoing a series of revisions in a manner typical of the State (remember all the revisions to the bin Laden assassination story, as one example), the story (with revisions) remains the story the State wants to tell. This is what the State wants us to know. The revisions are parceled out, bit by bit, in small increments so as to prevent too many people from noticing what colossal fuckups these people are. And it works! Just imagine what the actual story is -- and the degree of incompetence the full truth would reveal.

Second: this degree of incompetence is typical of the State. The State fucks upeverything it touches.

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S BLOG POSTS TODAY


Euro

EUROCASH-W 05012013
The Euro peaked in two weeks, fell back, and has rallied into this week. Nonetheless, key resistance still remains and the turning points remains the weeks of 05/06 and 05/20. The top of the channel for resistance we warned about was in the 13400 level which has not bee reached as yet. A weekly closing BELOW 13350 this Friday will keep the Euro neutral to bearish. So far the high has been about 13242. So we have not reached critical resistance yet. If there is going to be a drop, it would most likely come going into the week of 05/20. There should be some rally and then we have problems for the fall.
We need to see a closing on a daily basis ABOVE 13400 to suggest a rally before the decline. The Weekly Bullish stands at 13913. So this currency is not headed upward on a sustainable basis.

May – Tis the Season for Protests in Europe

The May protests in Europe are going by the slogan “fight against the king in Brussels”. Politicians are clueless. All they see is retaining their jobs at the expense of society and everything within it. There is no thinking out of the box. If they do not blink, they are risking the collapse of Europe as a whole.

Interest Rate & Deficits – The Real Crisis


Academics are truly amazing. They talk in circles, assume they are far above everyone else, and thus pontificate from the Ivory Tower without ever stepping foot out the door. There is a growing  consensus that deficits no longer matter. WHY? Because they cannot explain how government has run persistent deficits yet nothing has happened. Therefore, we are dealing with a new paradigm shift in academic thinking.
In 1962, Thomas Kuhn wrote The Structure of Scientific Revolution, in which he gave birth to the term “paradigm shift” (p.10). Kuhn argued that indeed all scientific advancement was by no means evolutionary. Instead, he put forth that scientifica advancement was really a “series of peaceful interludes punctuated by intellectually violent revolutions”, and in those revolutions he saw as “one conceptual world view is replaced by another”.
Academia is made a Paradigm Shift and has convinced itself that deficits certain are no longer relevant. This dramatic change in thinking to this “new age” is not unlike the first new age of economics where academics became convinced that it was their destiny to manipulate society for its own good. The theory was government was CAPABLE of managing the economy and eliminate the business cycle so we would never again face a recession or a depression. Paul Volcker in 1979 publicly went on record in his Rediscovery of the Business Cycle that the Keynesian age of new economics failed. So here we are with academics once again postulating that government need not balance the budget and just spend all the time with no impact upon the economy.
The economic revolution has truly been a metamorphosis that has brought the world to the brink of total disaster. They are clueless. They have no idea of what they speak and of course they just never consider the consequences of their errors. And when their ideas fail like Communism and Socialism, well that is just OOPS! Sorry about that!
Marx’s ideas of trying to manipulate the economy that Keynes followed, has been responsible for more deaths that atomic bombs. How many died in China and in Russia under Lenin by force to adopt these new economic theories. This one will also blow up is everyone’s face but they are already so committed to this new ”paradigm shift” they will never say we were wrong.
This whole idea has led government to manipulate interest rates down to reduce their deficits at the cost of pension funds and life insurance companies. What are the consequences of manipulated interest rates and statistics to support this debt that does not matter?

Stock Buy Backs – Bad Idea

Apple 4-30-2013

Apple sells $17 billion in bonds in record deal on Tuesday to initiate dividends and to buy-back shares because the stock has crashed. Buying stock is an investment. When companies buy back shares to placate investors, historically it is the beginning of the end. Many companies did that during the early days of the Great Depression. When the market kept going down and business was under stress, their early attempts to support their share prices resulted in the collapse of the company or its takeover. Buying back stock to delist is one thing. To do so to try to support share prices – VERY BAD!!!! In this case, Apple agreed to pay out $100 billion of its $145 billion war chest. But to do that, they have to bring back the cash from overseas and then pay huge taxes. This clever trick of issuing bonds at low rates now to satisfy shareholders is a clever move. However, shareholders should shut-up or sell. Corporations are not bank accounts. When times get tough, banks will not lend and they cannot sell new shares or borrow from the market. Shareholders are DEAD wrong on this one. If they were good traders, they should have sold their shares at the top. It was a clear bubble. They wining is like going to a casino better on red at the roulette where, and when they lose, ask for a portion to be returned. Get real – you are either a trader or an investor. You cannot be both. Traders lose when they get married to a trade. That is the number one rule of trading – NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER NEVER marry the trade. Only fools do so.