Is a Slingshot Move Setting Up?
We have penetrated last year’s low in the cash S&P500, but not in the Dow yet. The Yearly Bearish does not come into play until we get to the bottom of the upward channel. Penetrating last year’s low is indeed setting the stage for the Slingshot. Everything on our models is clearly pointing to this trend extending into 2020, and instead of concluding by 2017 that will be the starting point.
We NEED the vast majority to get really bearish calling for the end of the world and declines of 50% to 90%. This is the fuel for the Slingshot we need in place, just as we saw in 1987.
We will be launching a special blog for those inside Socrates. This will be more technical and forecasting. Hopefully, this will start next week. We will make an announcement once it is available.
There will be a blog for the INVESTOR that gives long-term views for various aspects. Access to the INVESTOR will be $150 minimum annually per region. You may select one or more of the following regions: America, Asia, and/or Europe. If you want to access a particular market at any time, that is $25 annually per market. If you just want to look around the world, it is $2 per click per market. That way, if you just want to see what is happening in Shanghai without subscribing annually to that market, you are free to explore the world. The INVESTOR level provides the long-term view only from the monthly up to the yearly levels. The computer writes the view on a daily basis, so yes, it will change dynamically with the market developments.
The TRADER level will be launching soon. That will include the short-term daily to yearly and provide access to arrays, reversals, and technical analysis. You can save to charts to view every time you return. This basic service starts at $750 annually.
The TRADER RECOMMENDATION level is where you have access to see the trading recommendations in every market. Where does Socrates stand? Long or short?
The INSTITUTIONAL service is geared toward big portfolio management. Here we get into asset allocation models with specific recommendations for shifting portfolios. This will monitor whatever you have in your portfolio and alert you to changes.
We will provide tablets with voice capability in and out four our Institutional level clients.
FIXING BUGS ON AN ONGOING BASIS
We are still fixing minor bugs in the language, which is generated and ported. Keep in mind that the computer has to handle countless patterns of every market around the world. The number of possibilities for writing a report is off the charts. It will write a report and five minutes later it will be writing the same report on the same market; it will select different languages to express the same outcome. This is not some canned report filling in numbers. The computer actually articulates everything on its own.
Fox News v Trump – In a Court of Law Kelly is Disqualified If She Were a Judge
Megyn Kelly’s inappropriate statements to Trump when she was supposed to be an impartial moderator demonstrated that she should by no means ever moderate another debate. On this score, Trump is absolutely correct. Yet it has gotten far worse. Fox News has revealed that is is really biased and should be disqualified from running any debate. Fox News tweeted entirely unprofessional this statement:
“We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”
As a matter of law, if a Judge becomes an active participant in the case, he isDISQUALIFIED. I do not care how many journalists at Fox News come out to defend Kelly. They are only revealing their own inappropriate judgment and seek to dictate their terms to the entire nation. If they were a judge sitting in a trial, this is grounds for instant disqualification. Their Tweet demonstrates they have bias. Here is the law governing this topic. Sorry: FOX NEWS is dead wrong here.
28 USC §144
Whenever a party to any proceeding in a district court makes and files a timely and sufficient affidavit that the judge before whom the matter is pending has a personal bias or prejudice either against him or in favor of any adverse party, such judge shall proceed no further therein, but another judge shall be assigned to hear such proceeding.
The affidavit shall state the facts and the reasons for the belief that bias or prejudice exists, and shall be filed not less than ten days before the beginning of the term at which the proceeding is to be heard, or good cause shall be shown for failure to file it within such time. A party may file only one such affidavit in any case. It shall be accompanied by a certificate of counsel of record stating that it is made in good faith.
(June 25, 1948, ch. 646, 62 Stat. 898; May 24, 1949, ch. 139, § 65, 63 Stat. 99.)
This is the law and a clear definition of bias. Fox News is incompetent to decide its own bias and its refusal to dismiss Kelly from the debate is entirely illegal in a court of law. Trump has stated his case and the public opinion of Kelly’s performance last time demonstrates that she was biased and not qualified to preside at any such debate. FOX NEWS is absolute off base here and has demonstrated it is participating in this issue which disqualifies them from even holding debates. With all their journalists claiming Trump will not dictate who should sit at that debate is no different than a corrupt court refusing to disqualify a biased judge. Those who have bashed Trump on this issue have shown that they have lost their journalistic unbiased qualification. This is now about manipulating the public to their personal view – not about reporting the facts or the truth to the public.
Trump statements have been:
“I refuse to call Megyn Kelly a bimbo, because that would not be politically correct,” he wrote on Twitter. “Instead I will only call her a lightweight reporter!”
In a later interview on Fox News’ “The O’Reilly Factor,” he told host Bill O’Reilly that she was “highly overrated.”
“I have zero respect for Megyn Kelly. I don’t think she’s very good at what she does,” Trump said.
Google AI Computer Wins 5 = 0
Google’s artificial intelligence computer has beaten the European champion of the board game Go. Not just once; but 5 to 0. This is far more difficult than Chess. This is more than merely creating lists of patterns to beat. It requires strategy.
Our computer has accomplished the same, but in forecasting. Our list of calls that have been correct in so many markets for decades demonstrates this is noPERSONAL opinion. There is something a lot more going on behind the curtain.
The language is the big job. Fixing the porting bugs to enable the computer to put it into human language so we can ask it questions and it explains its research, is by no means an easy task. This is something so many have tried to abscond with over the years. It is the code they demanded from me which I refused to turn over, which I believe would have ended up behind closed doors at Goldman Sachs. These people would never comprehend the code anyway since it really is a mind-twisting job to program something that is such a deep learning process in a complicated subject to outperform human capabilities. This has taken far more than money: it has taken me a lifetime to get this far. Porting this from machine language to function of the web for global access is in itself a huge challenge.
We are getting there.
Those interested in Machine Learning, these are the qualification needed to join our programming team on the delivery side:
Skills Required
- .NET/C#
- MVC/ASP.NET 5
- JQuery/Javascript
- MongoDB
- Deep understanding of OOP
Preferred Skills
- CSS / Design Principals
- Understanding of finance
- VB6 / VB.NET
- Development and management of legacy systems.
Guess Who Wants to Run As 3rd Party?
If things were not crazy enough, now we have ex-Salomon Brothers Michael Bloomberg saying he will run as a 3rd Party. Already, Kathy Kiely, the Washington news director at Bloomberg Politics, said she resigned from her post after growing uncomfortable with the way her outlet responded to news that Bloomberg is considering an independent White House bid. So we have Fox News hell bent on keeping a career politicians in place, but they would then be a rival of Bloomberg News. So what are we going to see? Big Mainstream Media battling it out for their own candidates?
Well, I think the computer did a pretty good job forecasting a crazy presidential election for 2016 30+ years ago. Economics is just the key to EVERYTHING.
Market Talk – January 27th, 2016
We saw a mixed session in Asia with good performances by the Nikkei (+2.7%) and the Hang Seng (+1%) but had Shanghai spoil the party with a -0.5% decline. That performance was actually rather good as we had seen the Shanghai Index down over -4% intraday. In Europe all Indices opened lower but spent the rest of the day rallying to close small positive. Numbers out of the States mid-session were insufficient to move markets or sentiment ahead of the Fed announcement. As US cash opened we saw an early sell-off – led mostly by Apple (-5.5%) and Boeing (-9,5%). Boeing gave poor earnings forecasts for the full-year 2016 whilst Apple claimed fewer unit sales also mentioning (twice) China’s slowdown hitting the base line.
Fed, as expected announced unchanged, whilst declaring to be visual on developments following the gradual path. Stocks did not particularly like this outcome trading lower into the close. DOW finished down 223 points (-1.43%) with similar declines for the broader S+P but the NASDAQ lost 2.2% (Apple -6.55% sharing the blame with Netflix -6.8% amongst others).
After the close a huge FB (Facebook) number beats estimates – which may bolster much needed sentiment into overnight trading.
Fed, as expected announced unchanged, whilst declaring to be visual on developments following the gradual path. Stocks did not particularly like this outcome trading lower into the close. DOW finished down 223 points (-1.43%) with similar declines for the broader S+P but the NASDAQ lost 2.2% (Apple -6.55% sharing the blame with Netflix -6.8% amongst others).
After the close a huge FB (Facebook) number beats estimates – which may bolster much needed sentiment into overnight trading.
Today we saw the separation between oil and stocks. The first day in a while that traders looked elsewhere for excuses as WTI closed higher this evening at $32.05 and Brent $32.79. Also, Gold continued its rally from yesterday but waited until the last 30mins of US trading to post the rally and was last seen at $1127 (+$5 +0.5%).
US Treasuries were disappointing until the FED came into play. We saw US 10’s hit a daily high yield of 2.05% but by the end of US trading the yield had dropped below the 2% level to close 1.99%. We will have to wait to see the effects upon the European markets but here is where they closed by the end of London trading: DBR (Germany) closed 0.45% closing the spread +154bp.
Italy 10yr closed 1.50% (u/c); Greece 9.07% (-22bp); Turkey 10.75% (-4bp) and finally UK 10yr Gilt closed 1.71% (+2bp).
Italy 10yr closed 1.50% (u/c); Greece 9.07% (-22bp); Turkey 10.75% (-4bp) and finally UK 10yr Gilt closed 1.71% (+2bp).
Not too much on the FX side today but one pair is worthy of a mention.. The Brazilian Real lost another 1.4% today reaching 4.11 as reports of police raids in four cities over allegations of money laundering related to state oil company Petroleo Brasileiro (according the Bloomberg news). GBP turned negative in late US trading to close the day 1.1% lower at 1.4230 (the days low price).
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