Friday, January 29, 2016

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S LATEST BLOG POSTS



Dow & The Immediate View

DJIND-D 1-27-2016

The Dow needs a closing above 16350 to stabilize for now temporarily. Otherwise, we are not out of the woods here until we pass March. To suggest that the major low has been made, the Dow would need to climb over 17750 level on a weekly closing basis. Keep in mind we are in a string of Directional Changes for the next 3 weeks. So expect this to remain vulnerable and choppy. The maximum on the downside if we elect a monthly bearish is to 12900 to 13000 zone. There, a closing below 16013 will be at least a warning of weakness for month-end.

Crude – Is it Over? Or Just Another Fake-Out?

CRUDE-W 1-26-2016
Crude has made a slight bounce, but it need desperately to close above $32.35 today just to pause. There is no change of a real reversal in trend here. Crude would need to closing above the $38.35 area just to hint that the low might be in place. Our timing targets are still pointing to this week/New Week. If this turns out to be a reaction high, then a rout to the downside may yet be in the cards. We have a Monthly Bearish coming into play at $36.65, $35.13, $33.30 and a key one at $30.10 followed by $28.25. So we would have to close above $36.65 to avoid a sell signal.

Gold the Bounce

GCNYNF-W 1-26-2016
Naturally, the gold promoters are out in force. The problem with their theories has always been that they are dead wrong. The REAL BULL MARKET will see the metals rise with equities. Right now, they focus on the stock market and yell buy gold because a depression is here. Here wee need to see a weekly closing above the 1143 level to raise any hope of a temporary low. Without that, we have a turning point in February which can be a high with a low moving into the next Benchmark target. A closing for January below the 1103 level will warn there is inherent weakness still lingering within this market. Next month, watch the 1097 level for that is key support. Break that and its looking into a low into the second benchmark.

Mining Industry in Collapse

Mining

The mining industry is in collapse. Everyone expanded dramatically expecting China to never stop buying. The loading up of debt is still likely to see many companies get in trouble. It is likely to see the entire industry be downgraded on a wholesale basis. Those looking at the miner stocks, should pay attention to the forecast on each one in Socrates. Some of the biggest will fall.

Yes, We Were Hit Hard With Global Warming

Blizzard Jan 23 2016
Yes, we were hit hard with global warming. It’s just like I remember from when I was a kid and my father pushed me out the window to dig us out so that we could open the front door.

Market Talk – January 28th, 2016

Market-Talk
Japan opened weaker (mostly following the poor close on Wall Street) but was also influenced by the poor Retail Sales (Est -0.1% v’s actual -1.1%). However, after the initial shock prices recovered on rumors of additional stimulus expected to be announced tomorrow (following its two day policy meeting) but even that could not stop the Index from closing down 0.7%. Shanghai was also not so positive after opening in the red it remained heavy, extending its decline into the close. With the Index settling -2.9% we continue to hear concerns over the slowdown which also hit shares in Alibaba reputed to be down 3.7% today and also China Shipbuilding -10%. The Hang Seng however, closed firmer (+0.75%) as shares in Galaxy Entertainment rose 5.1% on better than expected December earnings.
All core European indices drifted lower as the day wore-on! Despite FTSE attempting to break the mould by the end of the day it too turned negative. DAX -2.4%, FTSE -1% and both CAC and IBEX down around 1.5%. Deutsche Bank got the blame for the poor DAX performance producing a $1.25bn Q4 pre-tax loss in its Investment Bank which was enough to send the shares down 5.4%. Banks shares were under pressure also in Italy after the Sovereign and EU allow Italian Bnaks to sell their holdings of so-called Non-Performing Loans (NPL’s). Shares in Banca Monte Paschi Siena closed down 7.9% and Banca Popolare di Milano declined 9.5%.
US shares had yet another volatile day eventually regaining yesterdays losses to close around +0.7% across the board. After yesterdays sentiment boaster (Face Book who reported after the close) and Amazon are the two stocks that are pulling this market along. With closes today of FB +15.5% and AMAZON +8.9% we even saw a bounce for Apple today (closing +0.7%).
Healthy gains also today for Oil after rumored reports Saudi (OPEC) and Russia were considering cutting production easing the glut that currently exists within the market. WTI and Brent closed firmer both recording close to 4.5% gains apiece.
Given the rebounds in many core markets we are seeing the USD’s rally return some of its gains. Today the Russian Rouble and the Turkish Lira saw a healthy fight back with also the DXY losing ground to close at 98.64 (-0.32%). Saw a good bounce also in the South African Rand (+1.7%) after the Reserve Bank raised rates by 50BP to 6.75%.
The US Treasury market was reasonably quiet as most of the activity remained in stocks. The US 10yr note closed almost unchanged at 1.98% (-1bp). 10yr Bund closed 0.405% (-4.5bp) Spread closed +157.5bp. Other 10yr yield closes are as follows:- Italy 1.51% (+1bp); Greece 9.18% (+11bp); Turkey 10.62% (-13bp) and finally UK 1.67% (-4bp).

Is a Slingshot Move Setting Up?

CSHSP-Y 1-28-2016
We have penetrated last year’s low in the cash S&P500, but not in the Dow yet. The Yearly Bearish does not come into play until we get to the bottom of the upward channel. Penetrating last year’s low is indeed setting the stage for the Slingshot. Everything on our models is clearly pointing to this trend extending into 2020, and instead of concluding by 2017 that will be the starting point.
We NEED the vast majority to get really bearish calling for the end of the world and declines of 50% to 90%. This is the fuel for the Slingshot we need in place, just as we saw in 1987.
We will be launching a special blog for those inside Socrates. This will be more technical and forecasting. Hopefully, this will start next week. We will make an announcement once it is available.


Socrates-MainFrame
There will be a blog for the INVESTOR that gives long-term views for various aspects. Access to the INVESTOR will be $150 minimum annually per region. You may select one or more of the following regions: America, Asia, and/or Europe. If you want to access a particular market at any time, that is $25 annually per market. If you just want to look around the world, it is $2 per click per market. That way, if you just want to see what is happening in Shanghai without subscribing annually to that market, you are free to explore the world. The INVESTOR level provides the long-term view only from the monthly up to the yearly levels. The computer writes the view on a daily basis, so yes, it will change dynamically with the market developments.
Market-Analysis
The TRADER level will be launching soon. That will include the short-term daily to yearly and provide access to arrays, reversals, and technical analysis. You can save to charts to view every time you return. This basic service starts at $750 annually.
Dow-Trades-M Example
The TRADER RECOMMENDATION level is where you have access to see the trading recommendations in every market. Where does Socrates stand? Long or short?
Video Player
00:00
01:22
The INSTITUTIONAL service is geared toward big portfolio management. Here we get into asset allocation models with specific recommendations for shifting portfolios. This will monitor whatever you have in your portfolio and alert you to changes.
Socrates-IPad
We will provide tablets with voice capability in and out four our Institutional level clients.

FIXING BUGS ON AN ONGOING BASIS
Socrates S&P 1-28-2016
We are still fixing minor bugs in the language, which is generated and ported. Keep in mind that the computer has to handle countless patterns of every market around the world. The number of possibilities for writing a report is off the charts. It will write a report and five minutes later it will be writing the same report on the same market; it will select different languages to express the same outcome. This is not some canned report filling in numbers. The computer actually articulates everything on its own.

Fox News vs Trump: In a Court of Law, Kelly Would Be Disqualified If She Were a Judge

Megyn Kelly
Megyn Kelly’s inappropriate statements to Trump when she was supposed to be an impartial moderator demonstrated that she should, by no means, ever moderate another debate. On this score, Trump is absolutely correct. Yet, it has gotten far worse. Fox News has revealed that it is really biased and should be disqualified from running any debate. Fox News tweeted this entirely unprofessional statement:
We learned from a secret back channel that the Ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president — a nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the Cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.
As a matter of law, if a judge becomes an active participant in the case, he is DISQUALIFIED. I do not care how many journalists at Fox News come out to defend Kelly. They are only revealing their own inappropriate judgments as they seek to dictate their terms to the entire nation. Their Tweet demonstrates they have bias. Sorry, FOX NEWS is dead wrong here. Below is the law governing this topic.
28 USC §144
Whenever a party to any proceeding in a district court makes and files a timely and sufficient affidavit that the judge before whom the matter is pending has a personal bias or prejudice either against him or in favor of any adverse party, such judge shall proceed no further therein, but another judge shall be assigned to hear such proceeding.
The affidavit shall state the facts and the reasons for the belief that bias or prejudice exists, and shall be filed not less than ten days before the beginning of the term at which the proceeding is to be heard, or good cause shall be shown for failure to file it within such time. A party may file only one such affidavit in any case. It shall be accompanied by a certificate of counsel of record stating that it is made in good faith.
(June 25, 1948, ch. 646, 62 Stat. 898; May 24, 1949, ch. 139, § 65, 63 Stat. 99.)
This is the law and a clear definition of bias. Fox News is incompetent and their refusal to dismiss Kelly from the debate is entirely illegal in a court of law. Trump has stated his case. Kelly’s performance last time demonstrates that she is biased and not qualified to preside at any such debate. FOX NEWS is absolutely off base here and has demonstrated that it is participating in this issue which disqualifies them from even holding debates. Journalists claiming Trump will not dictate who should sit at that debate is no different than a corrupt court refusing to disqualify a biased judge. Those who have bashed Trump on this issue have shown that they have lost their journalistic unbiased qualification. This is now about manipulating the public to their personal view; not about reporting the facts or the truth to the public.
Trump’s statements:
“I refuse to call Megyn Kelly a bimbo, because that would not be politically correct,” he wrote on Twitter. “Instead I will only call her a lightweight reporter!”
In a later interview on Fox News’ “The O’Reilly Factor,” he told host Bill O’Reilly that she was “highly overrated.”
“I have zero respect for Megyn Kelly. I don’t think she’s very good at what she does,” Trump said.

Guess Who Wants to Run As a Third-Party Candidate?

Michael Bloomberg
If things were not crazy enough, now we have ex-Salomon Brothers Michael Bloomberg saying he will run as a third-party candidate. Already, Kathy Kiely, the Washington news director at Bloomberg Politics, said she resigned from her post after growing uncomfortable with the way her outlet responded to news that Bloomberg is considering an independent White House bid. So we have Fox News hell bent on keeping career politicians in place, but they would then be a rival of Bloomberg News. So are we going to see the big mainstream media battling it out for their own candidates?
Well, I think the computer did a pretty good job forecasting a crazy presidential election for 2016 30+ years ago. Economics is just the key to EVERYTHING.

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