Monday, November 30, 2015



Conference – Intro v Veteran

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
You write that you apologize that you can only provide 400 seats to this years’ World Economics Forum in Berlin. Why don’t you offer the possibilty to take part via an Internet Conference? So a lot more people could join your conference!
Best regards,
ANSWER: Doing a two day live broadcast is not really doable. What became clear was that we have many new people joining and people who have been there many times. The solution will be to separate sessions for beginners and veterans.
Additionally, the introduction that is required for some is old hat to others. So the intro can be done from a conference that is broadcast. We may be able to do a broadcast of a special forecast session as well.
These live events are also networking, They are mini-UNs where people come together. We have over 30 countries in the Berlin audience. People flew in from Japan, China, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Thailand, and that was just from Asia. Clients from South America and Africa attended as well as USA and Europe at the Berlin WEC. You get to meet people around the world of a like mindset.
Moving forward, we will have a veteran session of just forecasts assuming you had to attend an introductory session. It is very hard to do just forecasting without background for you lose some and bore others. They must be split.
Those who attend get the written reports as part of the price. We will be sending out Real Estate, World Share Markets, the Dollar in addition to the Year-End Report that was sent out as well. So the ticket price includes more than $1,000 of reports.

Australian Gov’t Converting itself to a Dictatorship?

The Australian Government is introducing legislation that converts itself into a virtual dictatorship whereby it has sweeping powers to order any communication company to simply do whatever they command. The claim the powers are as always for national security to prevent spies and criminals from accessing communications. This is akin to government saying they want to outlaw murder so the way to prevent murder is to simply just kill anyone they “think” someone would murder. You cannot prevent spies and criminals by doing the same thing yourself. How did we ever exist as a society if the government didn’t read every single piece of mail involving everyone in the world before emails?
Ever since the 2015.75 turning point in government on the ECM, we have seen a new directive – take everything. Britain we see the same action as well as in France. The drive towards non-democratic forms of government is underway.

Berlin WEC Cocktail Party 2015




New Smoking Gun: U.S. and UK KNEW Saddam Did NOT Possess WMDs
We’ve reported again and again and again and again and again that everyone knew that Iraq didn’t have weapons of mass destruction (WMDs).

Indeed, the architects of the Iraq war admitted that it was illegal … and really fought for oil (and Israel).

Today, a new smoking gun has  been disclosed.  The Guardian notes:

Paul Craig Roberts: Russia Wakes Up About Western-Financed NGOs Operating Against Russia

Russia Wakes Up About Western-Financed NGOs Operating Against Russia

Paul Craig Roberts

It took the Russians too long to defend themselves from Washington’s Fifth Column NGOs, but finally they understood that these US-financed operatives were a dagger at Russia’s heart.
Russian prosecutors have banned them. 

No one will give me credit for this, so I will claim it for myself. I wrote many columns about the Russian government’s insouciant toleration of Washington’s Fifth Columns operating against them. And some of these Fifth Columns are still present in the Russian media and in the neoliberal central bank.

One day, perhaps, the Russian government will come to its full senses.

Sweden: "No Apartments, No Jobs, No Shopping Without A Gun"

The week after the double murder at IKEA in Västerås, where a man from Eritrea who had been denied asylum grabbed some knives and stabbed Carola and Emil Herlin to death, letters and emails poured into the offices of Swedish Prime Minister (PM) Stefan Löfven. Angry, despondent and desperate Swedes have pled with the Social Democratic PM to stop filling the country with criminal migrants from the Third World or, they write, there is a serious risk of hatred running rampant in Sweden. One woman suggested that because the Swedish media will not address these issues, Löfven should start reading foreign newspapers, and wake up to the fact that Sweden is sinking fast.

Scope of Secretive FBI National Security Letters Revealed by First Lifted Gag Order

Fourteen years after the FBI began using national security letters to unilaterally and quietly demand records from Internet service providers, telephone companies and financial institutions, one recipient — former ISP founder Nicholas Merrill — is finally free to talk about what it’s like to get one.
The FBI issues the letters, known as NSLs, without any judicial review whatsoever. And they come with a gag order.

 According to the Electronic Frontier Foundation, around 300,000 NSLs have been issued since 2001. By 2008, the Justice Department concluded that the FBI had been abusing its powers with NSLs, even after changing policies in 2006.

Saudi Interbank Rates Soar, Deposits Flee As Cash Crunch Intensifies

Exactly a year ago, Riyadh decided to embark on an epic quest to send crude prices plunging on the way to, i) bankrupting the US shale complex and ii) achieving “ancillary diplomatic benefits,” like tightening the screws on Moscow’s energy-dependent economy in hopes of forcing Putin to give up Assad. 

Long story short, the kingdom’s plan didn’t work.

World's Largest Pension Fund Suffers $64 Billion Loss After Doubling Down On Stocks

Late last year, Japanese PM Shinzo Abe effectively forced the $1.1 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund to double its domestic equity allocation. With Kuroda providing perpetual Nikkei plunge protection, and with Abenomics set to bring about an economic renaissance, what could possibly go wrong?...

Sunday, November 29, 2015

NSA Ends Sept. 11-Era Surveillance Program

A controversial government surveillance program has come to an end. As of midnight, the United States National Security Agency has stopped the bulk collection of the metadata from Americans' phone calls.

It's worth noting that today marks the end of one of the most controversial parts of U.S. surveillance but other parts remain untouched.

For example, the PRISM program, which was also revealed by the Snowden documents and collects a vast amount of Internet data, continues to operate. The program has not been as controversial here in the U.S., because it does not directly target Americans, but as we've learned through the Snowden leaks, some content from Americans' communication gets caught in the dragnet.


War & Putting It All Together

COMMENT: You forecasted a world war.‎ What my generation only looks back at through a historical looking glass in an attempt to isolate the starting events of the last great war you have called into focus in real time as events unfold in the current great war. In advance of events unfolding. This experience is unsettling, but real.
Best regards,MM
REPLY: It is unsettling. ISIS has issued a letter taking credit for the attacks, stating, “That’s just the beginning of a storm.” I have tried to put everything together to understand how the world ticks. War comes only when the economy turns down; outside the USA, the peak was 2000 or 2007 depending on the country.
The siege of Paris is a very profound event. Had the terrorists attacked a military target, an international war would be less likely. Attacking the people like this stirs the sentiment against the Islamic organization and will create war.
Watch Roosevelt’s Speech on October 30, 1940
FDR promised that American troops would not be sent overseas to fight any foreign war. Now, you have Hillary claiming that this is not America’s war. America entered World War II only after the Pear Harbor attack. Attack the people and WAR will ALWAYS follow. That is just a simple fact of correlation, and not a personal forecast or opinion. All I can do is hope to reveal the interconnections and perhaps others in the future will learn from the mistakes.

“Cry ‘Havoc !’ and Let Slip the Dogs of War”

Dogs or War Rome
COMMENT: Mr Armstrong; I am a reformed goldbug who was naive to put it mildly but my wife called it stupidity. You have been correct and they have been wrong but that is just the surface. What you have opened my eyes to is the cyclical nature of everything around us. Not just markets, you have revealed your works applies across the spectrum from gold, stocks, politics, to war.
Thank you for the education. It has saved my marriage and my family’s future. I believe these people are evil who lure the unsuspecting with delusional promises that never prove to be reliable.
REPLY: Cycles are how energy moves. This is the divine mechanism that dictates everything from the planets revolving around the sun to our solar system revolving around the universe once every 25,800 years — the Precession of the Equinoxes. Only a fool refuses to comprehend the world around him.
President Franois Hollande was the first to speak of an “act of war” against France to justify calling for a state of emergency and to strengthen border controls. Yesterday, numerous heads of state at the G20 summit saw a solidarity as the German President Joachim Gauck also spoke of a war. The dogs of war were unleashed with this siege of Paris. The danger now is that the uneducated Christians will begin to clash with Muslims without understanding the difference between them and ISIS.
And yes — they really did use dogs in war. Archaeologists believe that humans have been using dogs in warfare since the animals were first domesticated more than 15,000 years ago. The first actual written record of using dogs in war dates back to Lydia in modern day Turkey, where coins were invented. The first ruler, Alyattes, reportedly had his soldiers turn packs of dogs loose on Cimmerian troops in a battle sometime around 600 BC, which was very effective against cavalry according to contemporary sources.

France Shutting Down Prepaid Debt Cards

France is using the terror attack as the excuse now to shut down pre-paid debt cards. Terrorists can circumvent any restriction. It is like gun control. Criminal do not buy guns at a store. Like drugs, they are readily available on the streets. Regulations only impact honest people just like debt cads or whatever. I sent a Xmas give to a friend in Germany last year and they thanked me but added please do not send me anything else. They have to go to customs, wait in in line, and then pay a tax to receive just a gift.

Berlin WEC About to Begin


We are sorry that we could not add more seats or hold additional sessions. Princeton was above our preferred size reaching 600 and Berlin we are sold out at 400. We just could not accommodate more clients. We apologize for being unable to hold more sessions.

Sandy Hook Hoax Exposed


Sandy Hook – Book BANNED

By “Barry Soetoro, Esq”

A stunning Documentary blew the lid off Newtown’s fake “school massacre.”

The film exposed the plot to disarm Americans via the fake “biggest school shooting in US history.” But immediately, the Regime began deleting this Documentary off YouTube – and terminating YouTube channels that reposted it. If the Documentary was “nonsense,” why was the Regime attacking everyone that shared it?

We covered censorship of the Sandy Hook Documentary here (VIDEO) and here. For the moment, you can watch the Documentary on YouTube:
[Film] We Need To Talk About Sandy Hook

But scrubbing that Documentary (late 2014) was just the first step. Now (late 2015), the Regime has resorted to banning books. This new Sandy Hook BOOK provides 400 pages of evidence that Sandy Hook was a pre-scripted hoax to take your guns:

Saturday, November 28, 2015

Paul Craig Roberts: Capitalism At Work

Zero Hedge reports a story from “Keep Talking Greece” that first appeared in The Times 
According to the story, the plummeting living standards forced on the Greek people by German chancellor Merkel and the European banks have forced large numbers of young Greek women into prostitution. The large increase in the supply of women offering sexual services has dropped the price to 4 euros an hour. That’s $4.24, enough for a cheese pie or a sandwich, the value that bankster-imposed austerity has placed on an hour’s use of a woman’s body. The half hour price is $2.12. They don’t even get the minimum wage.

Turkish F-16 attacked Russian Su-24 without warning, both were above Syria – commander

King World News Interviews PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS — Russia Rises As The West Destroys Itself

King World News Interviews PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

Russia Rises As The West Destroys Itself





I wrote the first three parts of this article back in September and planned to finish it in early October, but life intervened and truthfully I don’t think I was ready to confront how bad things will likely get as this Fourth Turning moves into the violent, chaotic war stage just over the horizon. The developments in the Middle East, Europe, U.S., China and across the globe in the last months have confirmed my belief war drums are beating louder, global war beckons, and much bloodshed will be the result. Fourth Turnings proceed at their own pace within the 20 to 25 year crisis framework, but there is one guarantee – they never de-intensify as they progress. Just as Winter gets colder, stormier and more bitter as you proceed from December through February, Fourth Turnings get nastier, grimmer, more perilous, with our way of life hanging in the balance.

In Part 1 of this article I discussed the catalyst spark which ignited this Fourth Turning and the seemingly delayed regeneracy. 

In Part 2 I pondered possible Grey Champion prophet generation leaders who could arise during the regeneracy. 

In Part 3 I focused on the economic channel of distress which is likely to be the primary driving force in the next phase of this Crisis. 

In Part 4 I will assess the social and cultural channels of distress dividing the nation, 

Part 5 the technological, ecological, political, military channels of distress likely to burst forth with the molten ingredients of this Fourth Turning, and finally 

in Part 6 our rendezvous with destiny, with potential climaxes to this Winter of our discontent.

The road ahead will be distressful for everyone living in the U.S., as we experience the horrors of war, economic collapse, civil chaos, political upheaval, and the tearing of society’s social fabric. The pain and suffering being experienced across the globe today will not bypass the people of the United States. Winter has arrived and lethal storms are gathering in the distance. Don’t think you can escape. You can prepare, but this Crisis will reshape our society for better or worse, and you cannot sidestep the consequences or cruel environment we must survive.

“Reflect on what happens when a terrible winter blizzard strikes. You hear the weather warning but probably fail to act on it. The sky darkens. Then the storm hits with full fury, and the air is a howling whiteness. One by one, your links to the machine age break down. Electricity flickers out, cutting off the TV. Batteries fade, cutting off the radio. Phones go dead. Roads become impossible, and cars get stuck. Food supplies dwindle. Day to day vestiges of modern civilization – bank machines, mutual funds, mass retailers, computers, satellites, airplanes, governments – all recede into irrelevance. Picture yourself and your loved ones in the midst of a howling blizzard that lasts several years. Think about what you would need, who could help you, and why your fate might matter to anybody other than yourself. That is how to plan for a saecular winter. Don’t think you can escape the Fourth Turning. History warns that a Crisis will reshape the basic social and economic environment that you now take for granted.” – 

 Strauss & Howe The Fourth Turning


KARL DENNINGER: When Are You Going to Be Done?

I will keep reminding you that nothing free is ever actually free but what's worse is that the data collected, once collected, is never deleted and that while there are plenty of "benign" or even helpful things that someone can do with data they collect on you, there are also very malignant things that can be done too.

There is something that everyone needs to understand about companies like Facebook and similar that claim large "revenue per user" figures: Someone is paying them that money.

If you're wondering how you get bled to almost-literally nothing in this world today, that's one way it happens.  You're tricked into believing that something like Facebook is "free", while the company discloses that you are "worth" $42 a year to them in direct revenue that someone else forks up and then must multiply by a factor of 10 or more in order for their investment to be worth it.  That money all comes out of your pocket whether you recognize it or not, and it happens simply because you use Facebook and thus give those firms the ability to buy the data that they then use against you to extract that $420!

Start thinking of your "relationship" with these businesses in this way and you might wake up a bit.

You might also decide that this isn't such a good deal, especially if that $420 means something to you.

Myth-Busters! Things Are Not As Government Makes Them Seem

Friday, November 27, 2015


Thatcher v Euro – Was She a Prophet?

Thatcher knew the Euro would fail and stated bluntly that the “government believes in the pound sterling”.
“We had arguments which might persuade both the Germans – who would be worried about the weakening of anti-inflation policies – and the poorer countries – who must be told that they would not be bailed out of the consequences of a single currency, which would therefore devastate their inefficient economies.”


QUESTION: As a long time follower since 1980 you always stressed time was more important than price.
Your benchmark time points stress time yet you still picked price can you explain?

ANSWER: Yes, we give projections for the ideal targets, but they are broad in one way and when geared with time they can be more reliable. But as in the Dow, there were three 18500, 23000 and 40,000. If this was the end of a bull cycle, then the 18500 would be sufficient. However, we still have time so that means we should look at the next target.
Time-6Technical projections will be provided at the specific time target. TIME is the main issue ALWAYS. There is a TIME for everything. When we reach the Benchmarks, it will not matter if the low in gold will be $902, $875, or $680.
When TIME runs out that is it. That is always the key issue. PRICE is secondary.

Ebola Returning?

Marty In your report on diseases you had mentioned that Ebola will initially fade but be back in full force in 2016 going into 2020 with devastating results. Looks like you are right again. Please see report from CNN about Ebola coming back to Liberia. Would Ebola be restricted to Africa or are we going to see worldwide outbreak this time.
REPLY: It is amazing to me how outside of physics, the world remains ignorant of cycles which control absolutely everything right down to the cycle of life. Ebola like everything else conforms to cycles. It will not stay confined to Africa. The importation of refugees into Europe will also provide a carrier for disease. Politicians are totally ignorant of life in general. It was Gaëtan Dugas (February 20, 1953 – March 30, 1984) who was a Canadian employee flight attendant of Air Canada who brough AIDS from Africa to North America. It was the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who traced it all back to this one individual they called “patient zero”. Despite the fact this has been disputed, the point is that someone, if not Dugas, crossed borders transporting the disease with them.
Another tremendous risk is criminal prosecutions in the USA. Anyone charged with a crime takes precedent over anything else. There is no question that with all the cross-border connections taking place right now, it is impossible to contain any diseaase to one area.

Market Talk – November 27, 2015

Trading Community
The spotlight was firmly on China today where the equity tumbled over 6%. News that market regulators are investigating suspected violation by some of the countries brokerages finance their clients stock purchases. Citic fell to its daily limit (-10%) before closing. Other non-financials also fell with notable Cathy Pacific, Petro-China and Sinopec were all down around 4%. All the core European Indices attempted the upside today but by the close all had fallen back into the red closing down around -0.5%. It really is not surprising that volumes in the west were so depressed today given the long weekend holidays in the States.
Both the black and the yellow gold’s were back under pressure today as both lost ground. Oil gave back much of the short-term midweek rally falling 3% closing $41.77 having rejected the $40 level earlier in the week. Gold also saw weekend selling losing $17 today to close $1056 and in Euro closes this evening below €1000.
Again the money finds its way into the US Dollar with the DXY closing this evening/week above the psychological par level at 100.06 (+0.25%). GBP was again a talking point as it approached the $1.50 area. The Russian Rouble held its ground well today slipping against the USD by only 0.5%. The Brazilian Real continues to trade heavy closing the day -3%.

Hang Onto Your Wallets: Negative Interest, the War on Cash, and the $10 Trillion Bail-in

Massive PR push underway to change American minds on Syrian Muslim resettlement to US

World Relief is PAID BY THE HEAD by the US taxpayer for their work in ‘welcoming communities’ and that they work closely with businesses to supply them with cheap immigrant labor.
World Relief’s vice president of advocacy and policy, Jenny Yang, also appeared on Hashtag VOA, and said her organization works with businesses and religious groups around the country to provide Syrian refugees with jobs and welcoming communities.

World Relief is also reimbursed by the taxpayer through a match program for supplying the volunteers in churches who pick up the refugees at the airport!

“We equip churches to respond tangibly,” Yang said. “We work with them in picking up a refugee family at the airport, or providing them with a meal, or even inviting a family [to join them] for the holidays.”

Then here she is implying that they are saving the Christians, WORLD RELIEF IS NOT SAVING THE CHRISTIANS!  The UNHCR is picking Sunni Muslims for resettlement to America and as a federal contractor, World Relief must resettle the Muslims or lose their federal funding (it is about the money!).


Berlin World Economic Conference Begins Tomorrow

ritz Carlton
The 2015 Berlin World Economic Conference will begin tomorrow. Early Check In will be tonight. We will be looking at what makes this all tick and the forecast for when the markets will turn in commodities, phase transitions, debt, war, and the coming new monetary system among other topics. This is our 30th Year for a WEC. We apologize that we are holding only two sessions this year, Europe and USA. These events are first class and major productions with a huge amount of time in preparation.

Gold & the Dollar Surge

A ton of emails are flooding in asking what to do with gold since it made new lows after yet another false rally. I appreciate all the people who have been hurt by the goldbugs. Just remember, what goes up MUST come down. Even if gold reached the $5,000 level, it may do so for one nanosecond. Whatever the high it will not rise to such a level and stay there. We are looking at the collapse of the world monetary system. This will be a transition trade only.
If gold closes below the 1043 level at year end, you can bet on new lows next year in 2016. We will most likely see a real surge in the dollar yet with the Euro collapsing. So pay attention also to the year-end closing for the Euro. If that is under 10365, the dollar surge is underway.

The Sept 30th, 2015 Turning Point in the Economic Confidence Model

The Economic Confidence Model may have pinpointed the start of the demise of Western Civilization. On September 28, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama had a 90-minute face off at the UN in New York. Putin petitioned Obama for the US to join Russia in against ISIS and leave Assad in power. The Obama administration, would not alter its plan to overthrow Assad, which can only destabilize the region tremendously. Hence, it was on the precise day of the ECM, September 30, 2015, when Putin began bombing anti-Assad “rebels” and ISIS. This event appears to be indeed extremely important moving forward.

Did Japan make a Mistake or Did they Intentionally Cause a Crisis to avoid a 26 Year Depression?

COMMENT: Armstrong-san, in Japan there is a belief that the Japanese government instigated your case because you warned that the Postal Savings fund would require government funds to bail it out because they lost the people’s money trying to support the market. You also said the economy would decline for 26 years. Many viewed that the government tried to silence you to support the economy.
There was some press asking how the FSA could send a letter claiming $10 billion was supposed to be at Republic Bank and then later claiming it was a mistake. That was the view in Japan. It was retaliation for your forecast of a 26 year decline.
REPLY: I am aware of that issue. I agree, here you have the agency in charge of managing the yen claiming it made a decimal point mistake calculating the yen turning $1 billion into $10. This calculation error sounds nuts and then it took them 13 days to figure out it was an error? It made no sense that this was such a mistake that was not corrected until Republic took the money. I do believe that Safra then just stole all the money on August 27th assuming $1 billion was pocket change if $10 billion was missing. He sold his bank to HSBC for $10 billion. That was a time when a $1 billion was a lot of money.
Japan may have caused the bankers to panic. But once Republic stole the money the crime was committed. After the bank went to the press and government in the States claiming $1 billion was missing and they “had no idea where it was”, nobody could then reverse what took place without looking like a total fool. They counted on US prosecutors being really stupid right down to Mary Jo White who is now head of the SEC. It is IMPOSSIBLE for $1 billion to vanish from a bank without a withdrawal slip or wire transfer. Money cannot vanish like that unless you break into a bank and take the cash even if they had that much in cash. The prosecutors NEVER asked, how can $1 billion just vanish?
I do not know if the Japanese government intentionally caused the crisis with a fake mistake or it really was a bureaucratic mistake. But they had sent a letter to the Federal Reserve even claiming $10 billion was missing which really did shake everything up. To then claim – oops, sorry, mistake, really does not sound plausible.
Even at my bail hearing, the judge stated the prosecutor allegations that I had a billion hidden in Europe somewhere. Nobody ever asked how could you make $1 billion simply vanish from a bank and nobody knew how. Then the press just repeated the allegation without asking WHAT?

Population Decline in Industrial Countries Requires Immigration?

The United Nations projects that over the next 50 years, the population in the industrialized world (US-Europe-Japan) will DECLINE, not expand. The population is suffering from growing old and the youth are so burdened with taxes they are not getting married (marriages off by 50%) and are not having children. The decline in birth rates and the migration of people from the outer regions into the old core is typical.
The UN is now supporting immigration to keep the pension funds alive. They have stated that immigration now “require[s] comprehensive reassessments of many established policies and programmes, including those relating to international migration.”

The Money Plane – Republic National Bank & Russia

Money-Plane NY Mag 1996 Cover Money-Plane NY Magazine Money-Plane-2 Money-Plane-3 Money-Plane-4 Money-Plane-5
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I do not want to reveal my sources but your ordeal with the government and Republic National Bank was linked to the shady dealings that Safra was involved with in Russia with the blessings of the U.S. government. Here is an article on the link which predates your ordeal by three years. Here is the 1996 New York Magazine on the Money Plane.
Here is the Congressional Record concerning the issue.
Money Plane Congressional Record, Volume 142 Issue 19 (Tuesday, February 13, 1996)
REPLY: Yes I am aware of the planes full of cash going to Russia organized by Safra. Clearly there was some sort of approval from Washington to allow Republic Bank to take the lead in such a venture.

Pi Turning up in other Fields of Science


The arrogance of people who try to claim that Pi has nothing to do with the business cycle is really amazing. They assume that a business cycle means we have no free will. They are ignorant of the fact that collectively we display mob or herd behavior. That does not negate you individual ability to participate with the herd or understand this is just a herd reaction as in financial panics. Of course we have FREE WILL, but the means we have the capacity to wise-up and move counter-trend to the majority. This does not turn everyone into a mindless drone.
Pi is turning up now in various science fields. It os a incredible important discovery that warrants our attention.

Market Talk – November 25, 2015

Trading Community
If not for the Autumn Statement by the Chancellor George Osborne in the British Parliament today, I think dealers would have called an early night ahead of the long weekend in the U.S. Asian equities were really nothing to write home about, closing mixed Nikkei and HS lower with Shanghai firmer. In Europe, the DAX and CAC were the star performers closing up 2.15% and +1.5% on the back of positive corporate announcements (Metro +6%, LafrargeHolcium +4% and Thomas Cook +10%) all raising dividends and payouts greater than expected. In the UK, the home builders surged afters Mr. Osborne’s comments bolstered the construction and builders interests; Barratt’s, Wimpey, and Persimmon all gained 5%.
FX initially saw weakness for EUR, GBP and JPY but many recovered towards the close. The euro spent the majority of the day below the psychological 106 level, but book-squaring into the close reversed a lot of those trades. We saw the mirror trade in emerging market currencies as we saw yesterday with the Rouble and Turkish Lira losing around -0.5% against the USD. The DXY (US Dollar Index) saw small gains closing +0.3% higher at 99.85.

Jean-Claude Juncker Warns Border Control will Kill Euro

Jean-Claude Juncker

EU President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned of the end of the single currency if EU members resurrect border controls once again. This statement reflects the internal dissent with Germany over the refugee crisis. It certainly seems rather insane that Europe just open its doors in this manner with the inability to truly screen those who enter.

World's Most 'Adorable' Drug Kingpin Is Actually The Daughter of Texas DEA Head Honcho

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Andrew P. Napolitano: What to Be Thankful For?

What to Be Thankful For?


What if the government’s goal is to perpetuate itself? What if the real levers of governmental power are pulled by agents and diplomats and bureaucrats behind the scenes? What if they stay in power no matter who is elected president or which political party controls Congress?

What if the frequent public displays of adversity between the Republicans and the Democrats are just a facade and a charade? What if both major political parties agree on the transcendental issues of our day?
What if the leadership of both major political parties believes that our rights are not natural to our humanity but instead gifts from the government? What if those leaders believe that the government that gives gifts to the people can take those gifts back?

What if the leadership of both parties gives only lip service to Thomas Jefferson’s words in the Declaration of Independence that all people “are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, (and) among these are Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness” and that the purpose of government is to protect these rights? What if the leadership of both parties dismisses these ideas as just Jefferson’s outdated musings? What if Jefferson’s arguments have been enacted into the federal laws that all in government have sworn to uphold?

What if the leadership of the parties believes that the constitutional requirement of due process somehow permits mothers to kill the babies in their wombs out of fear or convenience? What if the leaders of both parties believe that the president should be able to kill whomever he wants out of fear because due process is an inconvenience?

What if President Barack Obama has killed Americans and claimed that he has done so legally, relying on the convenient arguments of his attorney general, who falsely told him his killings are consistent with due process? What if the Constitution requires due process whenever the government wants someone’s life, liberty or property, whether convenient or not? What if due process means a fair jury trial, not an ordered killing?

What if the congressional leadership and most of the membership from both major political parties believe in perpetual war and perpetual debt? What if the history of American government in the past 100 years is proof of this nearly universal belief among the political class?

What if the political class in America believes that war is the health of the state? What if the leadership of that class wants war so as to induce the loyalty of the voters, open the pocketbooks of the taxpayers and cause compliance among the people? What if the political class uses war to enrich its benefactors? What if the government has been paying for war by increasing its debt?

What if the political class has been paying for prosperity by increasing the government’s debt? What if that class has controlled the cash-creating computers at the Federal Reserve and the free cash the Fed creates is to bankers and traders what heroin is to addicts? What if the $18.6 trillion current federal government debt has largely been caused by borrowing to pay for war and false prosperity? What if 20 cents of every tax dollar collected by the feds today is spent on interest payments for the government’s debt?

What if American taxpayers are still paying interest on debts incurred by Woodrow Wilson, FDR, JFK, LBJ, Ronald Reagan and every modern president?

What if the silent damage that the artificial creation of cash causes has been manifested not in price inflation but in equity and savings deflation? What if the manifestation of equity deflation is that too much of everything we own secures too much debt? What if the folks at the Fed who create the cash have kept interest rates so low that there is little incentive to save?

What if we all own a smaller percentage of what we think we own because the value of what we own has decreased as the debt on what we own has increased? What if the banks have borrowed the money that they lend? What if they can’t pay it back? What if the stock market is soaring on borrowed money? What if mansions and shopping malls are popping up but they secure more debt than they are worth? What happens when the plug is pulled on this temporary artifice when those debts come due?

What if the government demands transparency from all of us but declines to be transparent to us? What if the government fosters the make-believe notion that it exists to serve us? What if the government denies that it works for us and thinks we work for it? What if it has access to all of our communications, bank accounts, health and legal records, and monthly utility and credit card bills? What if the government knows more about us than we know about it?

What if the government stays in power by bribery? What if it bribes the states with grants of cash, the rich with bailouts, the middle class with tax cuts and the poor with welfare? What if the courts have approved this bribery?

What if, on Thanksgiving Day, our gratitude is not to the government that assails our freedoms but to God, who gave us our freedoms? What if, on Thanksgiving Day, our gratitude is for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness? What if we possess them despite the government?

What if, on Thanksgiving Day, we should be most grateful that we are free creatures made in God’s image and likeness? What if we are free to reject the government?

Turkey Is Lying — Paul Craig Roberts

Paul Craig Roberts Debates the Intelligent and Gracious Stefan Molyneux about Private vs. Government Power
PCR Debates the Intelligent and Gracious Stefan Molyneux about Private vs. Government Power

Paul Craig Roberts: Turkey Has Destroyed Russia’s Hope Of Western Cooperation

Michael Hudson Explains What the French President Really Wanted to Say but Didn’t

From Michael Hudson: What French President Hollande Would Have Liked To Have Said

“I apologize to President Obama for not realizing that ISIS’s attacks on France were expressions by the ‘legitimate moderate opposition’.” I appreciate President Obama making it clear that ISIS is America’s Foreign Legion just conducting moderate opposition in their own moderate manner.”


Year-End Special Report

Year-End 2015-2016
We will be sending out over the next two days ahead of the Berlin Conference the Special Year-end Report covering Currencies, Metals, Energy, Wheat, and major Share Markets with the Year-end Reversals to watch as we head into 2016.
(Note: This is ONLY available for those attending the World Economic Conference)
Currencies included:
A$, C$. British, Japan, China, India, Sweden, Euro, and the Swiss/Dollar as well as Euro/Swiss.

We are Watching the Demise of Politics As We Have Known It

The Republican Party tried its best to destroy Donald Trump. Like the French Royalty, they learned nothing and have merely tried to retain power by blocking out the rising storm of the people they consider the Great Unwashed. The Democrats are no better. They have the audacity to push Hillary in our face and ignore that the Clintons cut the chains that bound the bankers and then served them students on a golden platter while denying their right to declare bankruptcy on bankers.
The Republicans have been unable to crush Trump, yet they still do not get the message nor does the mainstream press. Trump has tapped into the anti-politician sentiment that has been rising and both the Republicans and Democrats will most likely explode like an over inflated balloon. Both are ignore the people; they assume that this is a passing phase and that they can get back to screwing the public as usual.
Party politics is dying because they have sold their soul to the investment bankers and K Street. They attack anyone who dares to hold them to their promises and they wage outright against any organization who dares to object like the Tea Party, Heritage Action for America, Club For Growth, the Madison Project, etc. They have outright blackballed any press or political consultant who works for outsiders and does not preach the party’s mantra.
We are witnessing the end of party politics, and yet they do not understand that they are in the final death throe stage. They assume the people will get over this period and fail to comprehend that a new generation is coming into voting power whom has been severely deprived of their rights, liberties, and pursuit of happiness, thanks to politicians’ incessant greed of selling themselves to the highest bidder at the expense of the people.
Marine-Le-PenThey use every excuse to grab more and more power. President Hollande of France now wants to amend the Constitution declaring — “France is at war.” Do you permanently change a Constitution for a temporary issue? Hollande announced a review of the Constitution and a legislative and security arsenal to strengthen the fight against the Islamic state and their continued air strikes in Syria. Hollande called on Monday to amend the Constitution to fight potential terrorists at home and for an aggressive effort to “eradicate” the Islamic State abroad. Nearly 300 searches were conducted since Sunday that are not related to the investigation into Friday’s attacks, but concern the radical Islamist movement. However, these measures are designed to also boost his popularity, given that he would have lost had he stood for election before the attacks on Pen.

What Happened to the Debt Ceiling Crisis?

Thank’s your down to earth’ blog updates which even ‘not economist’ will understand. My question is from US dept ceiling limits. Before this month,November, in the news was quite a lot of from this issue but after ‘D-day’ 03.11 or 05.11. Nothing happened… Or I can’t find anything from the search engine aka corporate media or the alternative news. May I ask you what’s going on? What was the result for the Us dept limit? It makes me wondering why not even alternative news sites asking the same question?
Thanks Martin in advantage for your help.
Kind regards,
ANSWER: That one does seemed to be buried deep. Effectively, Paul Ryan took the oath of office on October 29th after John Boehner said he would resign from Congress on September 25th as perhaps the most disliked speaker in many decades. The very next day, October 30th, Obama was handed with congressional passage of legislation a new debt ceiling that lifted the threat of a default on government debt. This pushed off that risk until after he is gone – 2017.  This essentially relaxed the strict spending caps through September 2017.
The Senate voted 64-35 to approve the measure, and this was Boehner’s parting act. It was Boehner who negotiated the deal over the past few weeks which was timed with Ryan taking office. Boehner was always the compromise king. The White House and congressional leaders carved out a deal. Obama said he would sign the bill into law as soon as he received it.
The two-year budget provision provides now imposes new top-line spending levels for Congress covering the fiscal year that began October 1st, 2015 and the one starting October 1st, 2016. This relaxes the budget caps which allows for an additional $80 billion in spending on military and domestic programs over the two years. That won the Republicans.
The system is broken. These spending ceilings no longer function since they are routinely increased each and every time. So where is the restraint on spending? Clearly, politicians could not manage anything for they never reform, remain within a budget, and when they cannot do their job, they raise taxes and increase the spending limits. Nobody could run a business or your household budget in such a manner.

The World Economy – A Balancing Act Soon to Collapse?


COMMENT: Dear Martin,
From reading your blog and other news I can conclude that the low interest rate has failed to increase the private business activities to the level that normally would require an increase in interest rates. The arguments now are to increase interest rates to save pensions funds and to be able to reduce interest rates if we get another financial crises.
To me it look like the system is totally out of balance and have not worked like the normal capitalistic system since 2006.
REPLY: Correct. Governments have embraced Marx & Keynes because they argued that government had the RIGHT and the CAPACITY to manipulate society by the economy creating Utopia eliminating the business cycle. They create economic disasters, blame others, and then start wars to get out the mess. It is never our interests at stake – only their’s. The Free Market always wins and this age of Socialism where they decide how to spend your money (usually on themselves), is coming to an abrupt end just as did communism. This balancing act has been a disaster because they assumed they had the power to control something they have no clue about how it even functions. Sorry but Smith and Schumpeter win.
Ironically, those who lived in communist states are better equipped to survive for they simply expect nothing from government. In Europe and the USA, people stupidly believe government is there with a safety net to help them. They keep moving the age for retirement. They keep raising taxes which proves they are incapable of any fiscal management since to raise taxes means you failed to do what you promised. Indeed, like Will Rogers, one need not joke about government and politicians, all you have to do is state the facts.

Dig-Own-GraveYet we are the fools who elect people with no experience and expect actually a good job. Look at Hillary. Many will vote for her just because she is a woman – nothing else just as some voted for Obama because he was black. Or a Bush because he had the “name”. We truly deserve what we get when we elect incompetent people that change our future who are corrupt, unethical, and unprincipled. We are too stupid to realize we compel history to repeat and we dig our own graves. We most certainly get what we deserve.

Is Turkey Trying to Distract the World From its Debt Crisis Shooting Down a Russian Plane?

There is something not quite right about this entire incident of Turkey shooting down the Russian fighter jet and then attacking the rescue helicopter. Sorry, but Turkey is way out of line when they KNEW that Russia had no intention of attacking Turkey. A argument that Turkey will defend its borders implies there is a threat to Turkey, not simply a drive-by. There was plainly no reason for Turkey to take such action. They assume they are a NATO member and thus Russia cannot fire back without starting World War III. This is a totally reckless incident and unimaginable conduct of Turkey under these conditions when they clearly knew they were NOT under attack from Russia no less a single fighter jet.
Even if it were true that the Russian jet strayed into Turkish airspace, at best there should have been a scramble of jets to “protect” its airspace without provoking war. This has been standard operational procedures between USA and Russia for years. It is not some coincidence that a Turkish film crew captured the incident. They were most likely tipped off to be at the right place at the right time.
This entire incident raises serious questions if the economic conditions in Turkey, being on the brink of a economic meltdown, did not deliberately try to provoke war to distract the world from its debt crisis. Turkey is being watched for many see it as the FIRST domino to fall in the Emerging Market Debt Crisis. This raises many, many serious questions about the motive behind this entire incident.
What is truly astonishing is that in a letter to the U.N. Security Council, Turkey openly stated that it had shot down the jet while in Turkish air space. It then even admits it also shot a second plane on a rescue mission – the helicopter as if that was some major threat. These actions make it appear that Turkey is praying for war because its government could collapse with its debt.
An armoured police vehicle drives through a barricade on fire during a demonstration in Istanbul
Putin rightfully said “We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today.” What Turkey did was unimaginable and the entire incident appears to create a diversion from its pending economic meltdown. There have been major demonstrations against government corruption in Turkey for the past few years.
NATO has called for Turkey and Russia to show restraint, the alliance’s Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said, “we stand in solidarity with Turkey and support the territorial integrity of our NATO ally”. This is reminiscent of precisely how World War I began because of treaties. Then Obama also said similar confrontations could be avoided if Russia stopped attacking “moderate” Syrian rebels who are battling forces loyal to the government of President Bashar al-Assad.
Obama is way out of line here for the US is totally responsible for ISIS since they funded these people to try to overthrow Assad in Syria. All of this for a pipeline to compete with Russia to get gas from Saudi Arabia to Europe. World leaders are full of shit and pretend this is about a dictator when in fact the overthrow of Syria was precisely what ISIS wanted. This mess lies squarely in the hands of the Obama Administration and then to have the audacity to pretend Turkey had a right to defend its airspace when not being attacked is just too much. These people NEED war to distract everyone from the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is causing the collapse of governments for a system of borrowing year after year with ABSOLUTELY no intention of ever paying any debt off.
The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor. That was a viable attack. One plane flying close to the border and claiming it was 1km in your airspace giving you the right to shoot down a Russian plane is pure insanity. The fact that a film crew was there makes this seem to have been a deliberate act to cover up the economic meltdown of Turkey.

Market Talk – November 24th, 2015

Trading Community
The morning session in Asia was rather dull but all recovered in the afternoon into positive territory with the exception being Hang Seng (which was still down -0.3%). Europe drifted into the negative shortly after the open as news was still focused on the nervous Belgium shut-down. All trading was dull and in thin conditions then the news that Turkey had shot down a Russian fighter jet and equity indices were hit as were their currencies. Upon the news both the MICEX (Moscow Exchange) and ISE (Istanbul Exchange) dropped 2% both lost more ground eventually closing -3.5% and -4.5% respectively. The Russian Rouble made all of its losses (2% at one stage) back to close unchanged on the day. The same could not be said for the Turkish Lira which closed down 1% on the day. US Indices opened lower but recovered all of their losses to close with small gains across the board.
Energy was the other main benefactor of the midday news with WTI and Brent both closing up almost 3% on the day. Gold, Silver and Copper all gained on todays news recording gains of between 0.8% and 1.8%.
The Bond markets also gained on the uncertainty with US Treasuries, Bunds and peripheries all closing strong. Interestingly, the curves for all markets were well behaved with even the front-end being pulled along. The 30yr US closed on the 3% level again with 2’s, 5’s and 10’s all gaining 2BP. The longer term trend continues to show the flattening theme for the US curve.
Mr Carney (BoE Governor) said today that he did not know when British interest rates should start to rise and Andy Haldane (BoE Chief Economist) sounded even more extreme when he said he sees more downside risks for growth. GBP Sterling/Cable lost 0.4% today and was last seen at 1.5070