Tuesday, September 29, 2015

MARTIN ARMSTRONG'S LATEST BLOG POSTS


World Economic Conference

WEC-2015-2r
This Year’s Conference will review all important countries and their markets. We will look at the globe and in so doing, we will be in a position to see how capital is moving and what they future will bring. By reviewing the world, we get to see the global trend and therein lies the way to approach the future. Not everyone will trade every market. That is not the point. What emerges is the trend and for you to survive, you must have the confidence that you understand the trend and can see it moving before your eyes. You cannot invest in one market confidently without understanding the trend.
The number one reason people lose money and forecasts are wrong, has been whenever they are made in isolation. The entire argument by the gold promoters has been that the big forces are manipulating gold and THAT IS WHY THEY have been wrong. They only try to forecast gold and silver alone and cannot see that the entire commodity sector was declining and that deflation was engulfing everything. They have been dead wrong because they do not understand how the world economy even functions. There is a time to BUY and a time to SELL in all markets. Only a fool stands there and expects only higher prices without end.
To survive the future, you MUST understand the trend. Our World Economic Conferences are mini financial UN type meetings. You get to meet people from around the world and you can see as well as feel how the world economy is moving there among the attendees. These events are inspiring for knowledge comes from exposure. This is not some promotional event where you will be asked to invest in one thing or another, This is about seeing, feeling, and attaining the ability to understand the global economy. We are all connected and as we see the world unfold before our eyes, you will then understnd how to survive.
We will answer the most pressing question of all:
We do we put our money for the next two years
This conference will address the global strategy, not just the buy and sell for short-term traders. This is the real market and how are we going to deal with this event that comes around only every 300 years or so.
We will be providing papers in advance after October 1st to enable you to prepare for this event. We will have an early introductory session for new attendees and there will be numerous people there who have been attending these sessions since 1985. Everyone chips in and this become a total learning experience with everyone contributing.

Stock Markets Crashing Into the 2015.75

NIKICH-W 9-29-2015 NIKFOR-W 9-29-2015
The fact that the stock markets are crashing into the 2015.75 turning point, rather than making a major high, indicates what we should expect to unfold in the future. In 1987, the low was on the day of the ECM, as was the case in 1994, whereas 1998.55 was the high in the Dow that day. So a low suggests higher highs, whereas a high at this point in time will mean a profound longer-term correction.
So far, so good. We may shake the tree and send money running into the waiting arms of government — so look out for the aftermath.
1994-SP500

DJ-1998-2015
1998-LTCM-Crash

The Peak in Government? A Low in Interest Rates?

FEDFUN-M 9-28-2015
We have warned that capital is in a flight to quality, therefore creating the bubble in government paper. We also warned that the bond market on the long-term peaked in April/May and that we should expect a further rally in the short-end. This significant move has unfolded right before our eyes. The fact that the bonds have peaked in advance, yet we have the short-end rising into this period, reflects the stark reality that capital does not trust government long-term.
The Fed has been warning that they must raise rates to reestablish “normalcy” to the yield curve. No one in their right mind should be buying long-term paper at these rates. The capital has been heading into an even shorter investment cycle, and this presents a highly dangerous potential on the horizon.
FEDFOR-M 9-28-2015
What is the concern? With capital consolidating into short maturities, this means that any change in rates will have a far more immediate impact upon the sovereign debts of all nations. The typical dollar bears say, “Oh, well China sold a huge amount of bonds!” and they twist this into somehow being bearish for the dollar. China is following the trend: sell long-term and move short-term.
We can see that volatility beginning to rise from October moving forward. We are looking at a panic cycle that appears in the U.S. Fed funds by February, followed by another next August.
This is confirming the change in trend that we see with 2015.75. It is not a monumental crash in stocks, nor is it the end of the world with the blood moon. This is the peak in government. As time begins to move forward, you will look back at this turning point as rather significant. It may be more than an announcement that there is water on Mars. We have had so many things happen this week, right down to a meeting between Obama and Putin at the United Nations.
So grab a drink. You might need one as we start to move forward away from the change in trend — 2015.75.

Democracy Is More Than A Right to Vote

Thatcher-Socialism
The first thing government and the majority of academics try to hide is the business cycle for they argue only their policies will eliminate something that is part of nature. We must understand that the origin of all business cycles is humanity. I named one report which has become pretty famous “It’s Just Time” in honor of my friend Margaret Thatcher. When we were talking about politics, she said John Major would lose long before we knew for sure even whom his opponent would be. When I asked her why, Margaret, who instinctively understood cycles, said, “It’s just time.”
Margaret and I became friends. I visited her office in London frequently and she even invited me to her home for her annual Christmas party. She instinctively knew that public attitudes change, and with them, the political winds from among the people. She addressed our conference and stated publicly that politics looks at things in terms of trends, but perhaps they should look at the world in terms of cycles.
thatcher-conference
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Somehow, someway, robbing other people has become the justified political agenda. There can be no equal justice or freedom of thought, religion, or anything as long as we discriminate against others for race, creed, sexual orientation, beliefs, or possessions. One of the Ten Commandments even states that you should not covet thy neighbor’s possessions and clearly condemns this agenda. Yet, forcibly taking what others earn is seen as fair. This is very strange; when an individual does that on their own, it becomes a crime. We let politicians discriminate and rob others of what they have, and somehow it is a badge of honor.
Athena
The democratic rise in Athens during the ancient world was rather distinct and far more important than people assume by just looking at the surface. Their so-called gods were not the same vision we have today as a single God who created the world. Their gods were not creators, but perhaps closer to superheroes or evil manipulators; extensions of human nature. These ancient Gods were depicted in human form, opposed to some wild looking creature. This reflects a concept that began in Greece: the idea that the individual mattered. Prior to Athens, governments were autocratic political systems who held the belief that humankind required a stiff hand to rule them or chaos would emerge. So the concept of democracy was truly revolutionary that the individual could provide for self-rule and that such freedom would not lead to chaos.
Socialism has devolved back into this assumption of the autocratic rule; that the individual is incapable of caring for their self and requires a strong autocratic ruler. We are heading into a political storm; this degradation of the individual has once again resurfaced as it always does.
While the resurrection of authoritative government whereby the real underlying principle is that we are incapable of self-rule, also emerged during the period of the Age of Enlightenment. This hybrid theory became a way to blend authoritative rule with somehow individual rights. This became known as the social contract. In moral and political philosophy, this concept of a social contract (political contract) addressed attempted to established the origin of society with social rights merged with the legitimacy of the authority of the state over the individual.
leviathan
Leviathan was a book written by Thomas Hobbes (1588–1679) and originally published in 1651 during the English Civil War (1642–1651). The Leviathan argues for a social contract expressing that the people need the king with an absolute sovereign rule. Hobbes explained that civil war could only be avoided by strong undivided government. Of course, this same theory has been behind the idea of a one world government that was used to force upon the European people Brussels, which once again is proving to be the destruction of any democratic process since not one member of the Trioka stands for any election whatsoever. The Social Contract (Du contrat social ou Principes du droit politique) is also the short title of a 1762 book by Jean-Jacques Rousseau on this topic.
The problem with the social contract concept has been that it is never capable of restraining the desire for more and more power. Hence, the very idea of socialism become corrupted and unattainable. There appears to be no possible way society’s rights can be maintained with any position of an authoritative rule.
invisible-hand
A true concept of democracy is when people are competent of self-rule. Humankind is not helpless and does not need to devolve into chaos that requires a dictatorial style government for their own good. True democracy is without career politicians and is based on human cooperation. A Republic, which contains career politicians, always devolves into an oligarchy and ultimately dictatorial authoritarian rule while pretending to support the moral philosophy of the social contract. The former emerges from the cooperation of humankind (Invisible Hand) while the latter is based upon punishment. The first inspires freedom while the second suppresses human nature.
It appears that only a Direct Democracy will stand any chance of breaking this cycle between society and authoritative rule. What self-corrupts is always a Republic where we elected pretend representatives. They only become career politicians. In the USA, we recognized the danger with FDR and then made it that no one could be president for more than two terms. The same should have applied to Congress.
We need annual citizen panels to oversee the bureaucrats and that nothing can be enacted without first testing to see if it is constitutional. We should adopt Ben Franklin’s proposal for judges, that they ONLY be nominated by the legal profession and never by politicians. The terms should never be for life and the minimum age should be 50 with the maximum 65 so that they have life experience. No single judge should ever rule in any case, but there should be rotating panels of three judges with one being appointed for just one case and return to private practice. Anyone with any connection to the case MUST recuse himself or suffer life imprisonment.
The citizen panels must be with people who are qualified in each field. In finance, only someone with experience would sit on a panel for one year and never again serve. This would be akin to serving in the army for your country.
No legislation should ever be allowed to be merged. Each must be voted upon by the people directly and each must stand alone. The entire Social Security Act was 16 pages. Obamacare stood 7 feet tall 33000 pages and we still do not know everything lurking in there. This is the essence of corruption. Nobody can argue this was good legislation unless they read the entire thing, which nobody has.
So what political system might work at least for a while until its crumbles into corruption? It appears the last thing we can try is Direct Democracy and trust the people for once. It’s an old idea that may need to be reexamined.

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