Friday, July 31, 2015


Socrates Report

Overall, we will be providing three primary levels of service – Investor – Trader – Institutional. The distinguishing factors are deigned based upon needs. We will have the overall outlook and trend for the Investor, then the Trader will be provided timing and price target objectives. On the Institutional level, we will provide portfolio construction, asset allocation, and two primary levels of service geared to either hedging (physical product or currency) or investment.
The advantage of Socrates is there are no personal opinions for nobody can possibly forecast the future trends with simply an opinion on any consistent basis. Being right once or wrong once means nothing. Only consistency matters.
The greatest mistake people make is they fail to comprehend that it is alwaysTIME and PRICE. Those who ignorantly expect some correct forecast in price only are doomed for they fail to comprehend how markets even function. We can forecast gold will drop to $1,000 or rise to $2,300 but each is irrelevant withoutTIME. Falling to $1,000 before its TIME warns of lower lows. Likewise, failure to reach a target on the upside by a specific TIME also fails to complete a forecast. Both objectives must be met and PRICE is secondary to TIME. It is always TIMEthat is the primary objective – not PRICE.
The computer wrote this intro piece on AOL. This is not the entire report that Socrates will provide. There is a lot more including trading with its historical hypothetical trading results back to inception of each instrument.
“At this time, my analysis in AOL shows a major reaction rally last year which has resulted in a 3 year Reaction High forming at 532.8 up from the major low established back in 2011. In order for this rally to continue beyond 2014, we need to see new highs this year. A higher year-end closing above 461.7 is required as well. In order for AOL to turn bullish, we need a rally to extend beyond last year with new highs here in 2015 or at least a higher closing for year end. If new highs can be established, then a further rally into 2018 becomes possible. Holding above 514 on a monthly closing basis keeps AOL in a bullish posture, but a monthly closing beneath that level will signal a correction is possible. However, should new intraday lows develop beyond this target year, then the final low could take place during 0. Our extreme projected resistance for this year stands at 1573. A continued rally depends upon holding 323.1 intraday. There are 61 days until the next ECM target, which is Wed. Sep. 30, 2015. A high forming on this precise target will warn of a correction.
The broader trading range is defined by the Monthly Reversals. The Monthly Bullish Reversal stands at 514 whereas the Monthly Bearish Reversal lies below at 419. Broadly speaking, a month-end closing BELOW 321.9 is where the critical support lies. This currently resides some 35% below the immediate trading level showing where the major support indeed rests. Only a monthly closing BELOW this level will confirm a long-term bear market is in motion. Otherwise, here lies important dynamic support underlying this market and holding this level is a clear line of demarcation in long-term trend.
The more immediate trading range is defined by the Weekly Reversals. The Weekly Bullish Reversal stands at 382 whereas the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies below at 382.
Our primary targets on the Turning Point Model, defined as highs or lows on an intraday or closing basis, are Jul. 2015, Sep. 2015, Jan. 2016 and Apr. 2016
Our most critical model, the Directional Change Model targets are Jul. 2015, Aug. 2015 and Feb. 2016. This model often picks the high or low, but also a breakout to a new higher trading zone or a breakdown to a new lower trading level.
Looking at the volatility models suggest we should see a rise in price movement during are Aug. 2015, Sep. 2015, Dec. 2015, Jan. 2016 and May. 2016
However, our Panic Cycle targets where we may see either an outside reversal or a sharp move in one direction are Jun. 2015 and Dec. 2015″,

Gold Has NOT Bottomed Yet

Gold elected a Monthly Bearish Reversal today at 1155. We have some support down at the 1042 level for now. Technical support for August lies at the 1029 level. We will be issuing the update on gold for those who purchased last year’s report by the end of the month to cover the downside. This will cover gold moving into the low updating the weekly Arrays.
The long-term forecasting provided in last year’s report has not changed. Everything is in line for the low to form on the Benchmarks. Personal opinion may change as it always does since we are only human. But the numbers and time are unyielding. Either both are reached or we wait. In this respect, the computer is far better than even I could hope to be personally.
Gold had 3 primary PATTERNS it could have taken following a 13 year high which were separate and distinct from PRICE. The first is the reaction phase which comes in either 2 or 3 units. If this were to have elected a Yearly Bearish we have at $681, then it becomes a Waterfall event moving to a change in trend. That does not appear to be likely long-term. That is what the Dow Did from 1929 high electing it first Yearly Bearish Reversal in 1930 which resulted in the bottom by July 1932.
Of course we have the typical people who just fight the trend and are desperate to try to prove me wrong on something so they can declare gold will not decline. These are the typical fools who will be wiped out since they are always separated from the money rather easily. Opinions as always mean nothing for even in law it is distinguished as a comment in passing known as “dictum”. For something to be“law” the Supreme Court must expressly state the principle, not merely mention something in passing. So no matter what field we talk about, opinion is not worth a grain of salt. My personal opinion is never a forecast – only the computer can do that – not me.
We must always play it by the numbers and time. Nothing else matters at the end of the day. Clearly, gold is not in such a Waterfall Event no matter how bearish everyone gets. To make that final low, the vast majority have to write off gold entirely and regard it as the WSJ just did – nothing more than a “pet rock”. So as the bearishness builds, this is good for establishing character – not foolishness. But the hate mails still come in and this warns the tree must still be shaken. When they stop, then the market will be ready to rebound but only on short-covering – not new longs.
So far, we are still dealing with a reaction only phase. That could have produced a low as soon as 2013 with a rally into 2015.75, but that would have required also aPhase Transition in the equities, which did not materialize. It would have also required a premature peak in government (low in interest rates), which Larry Summers assured us would not happen by justifying negative interest rates.
Gold has not bottomed as of yet for it must line up with everything else. The sell signal at the end of July was yet another confirmation that new lows still lie ahead. The Phase Transition in the Dow was postponed for the post-2015.75 era because this target is manifesting as the peak in government. Therefore, we should see the low in short-term rates with this target. This postponement in the Dow likewise secured the decline in gold would be protracted rather than the typical 2 year correction with the low in 2013.
Those targets for the low in gold are in the International Precious Metals Report that warns of the final decline. We are NOT looking for the low in gold to be on October 1 either. If that materialized, it would be extremely profound. However, the more likely event will be the rush to cash completing the final Flight to Quality.
How high gold will rise from a major low depends upon the entire political landscape. Will we still have a free market for gold, or will it move entirely underground, deemed the money of “terrorists” in an attempt to hunt down business conducted off the grid?  This we will cover for the future rally in the next Special Report.
There is little question that we are in the meltdown phase of Western civilization. Politicians, like Hillary, are openly corrupt and know that they will still have herds of supporters no matter what crimes they commit. We as a society get the politicians we deserve. This is why society has to crash and burn, hitting the control-alt-delete sequence to reboot. This seems to come around about every 309.6 years or so. We simply have to suffer the pain before the followers wake up and say, “Oh shit! Where did my future go?”
When gold rises, other assets will rise as well. Even in a hyperinflation, all assets make that transition to the new land of currencies. The German Rentenmark that replaced the hyperinflation currency was backed by real estate instead of gold. So do not listen to the gold promoters as they speak with forked-tongue. Sure, gold will rise, but so will equities and in the end real estate. All things will be redenominated in whatever currency we end up using. The dollar is NOT the problem. The entire system based upon the same structure of perpetual debt is the problem.
For now, the Greenback is moving higher. With a rate hike by the Fed, we should start to see panic buying as all the dollar denominated debt will take a hit forcing short-covering in the dollar.

Congress Passes Bill In 15 Minutes To Revoke Americans’ Passports Without Due Process

The “war on terror” is a status quo fraud perpetuated by the oligarch-controlled mainstream media and authoritarian members of Congress as a way to systematically strip the American public of its freedom and civil rights in the name of fighting an outside enemy. This tried and true tactic has been used by statists throughout history, and history is indeed repeating itself here in the “land of the free.”


C$ Elects Monthly Bearish

IBCDVC-M 8-1-2015
The C$ fell sharply against the US dollar confirming our computer forecast for a rising US dollar completing the trend to initiate a deflationary cycle in the USA post 2015.75. Basis the cash, the US dollar closed ABOVE the 1008 high showing we are moving beyond the crisis level felt during the 2007-2009 Panic.
The Greenback closed against the C$ settling on the cash at 13088 above the 2008 high. We show resistance at the 13346 level with key resistance at 13535-13590 zone. This is the real critical area for exceed that warns of a possible further rally up to the 13900-14200 level with a gap there after to 14900 followed by 15900.
The higher the Greenback, the greater the debt crisis outside the USA which will drive the flight to quality into the USA. When that peaks most likely as early as 2017, look out for what follows.

Of Badges and Blasphemy

America long ago ceased to be ruled by a monarchy, and succumbed to a more invasive and violent strain of statism in which police officers are seen as “God’s agents on earth,” to borrow Max Weber’s unironic expression. Throughout thesoyuz, police departments and prosecutors have been treating “contempt of cop” as a form of criminal blasphemy.

John Perkins : The Economic Hitmen

A great illustration on how corporations take control of countries, and how capitalism drives the expansion of the Military Industrial Complex. Made by Studio Joho who have allowed me to upload their video. Check out their website -

Paul Craig Roberts: Fed Most Certainly Will Not Raise Interest Rates

Do We Care More About a Dead Lion, or Dead Children?

What a strange and frightening world we live in. We shed crocodile tears for “Cecil”, the preserve lion of Zimbabwe who was killed by a sport hunter in a very unsportsmanlike way. It got the attention of all the media outlets, and we even had one late night comedian in tears for our friendly lion Cecil. Meanwhile not a whimper, care, or tear, for the little baby who was burned alive in his home as Israeli settlers set fire to his home this week. We all know Cecil’s name, but no one knows the name of the dead baby. We shed not a tear for 135 civilians including 75 children of Palestine, killed in what Amnesty International called, “a day of carnage”, after its investigation of the vicious Israeli attack on Gaza in 2014. Not one tear. 

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Paul Craig Roberts: EU’s Greek Austerity Plan Rejected By The IMF

it has taken five years to establish an elementary fact shows how rapacious are the rich. Moreover, it proves in my opinion that the “crisis” was never about debt. It was about using the debt as a weapon to establish that creditors are not responsible for their mistakes when they overlend, and to force the centralization of member states’ tax and spending policies in the EU.

I Dare You!

Dear CIGAs,
Let’s look at two different topics where we are seeing contradictory "evidence".  First up is what’s happening in the gold and silver markets.  Never before have I seen sentiment as poor as it is today.  Nor have I seen so many negative articles about gold in the various mainstream publications.  It has gotten so bad, gold has even been compared to "pet rocks"!  While we have seen food fights before, the name calling as of late has become deafening led recently by Martin Armstrong and Cliff Droke.  I wonder how or what their response is to the physical side of the argument?
As you know, there have been "air pockets" in the price of gold over the last three years.  Nearly always, these takedowns occur at night and in particular Sunday nights.  The last one a couple of weeks back, saw $2.7 billion worth of gold sold over a two minute span.  I have asked the question many times, "who" controls this much gold and if we could identify someone or some entity, "who" would ever sell in a manner to destroy pricing if a profit motive truly exists?  Can anyone conjure up an answer to this while including the phrase "profit motive"?  I dare any of the gold bashers to answer these two very simple questions!  Front running just a bit, any real answer I would imagine must have "desired lower gold price" as part of the explanation.
A very real problem or flaw in logic exists in the current gold and silver markets.  If there is in fact so much selling (panic selling), how is it possible the U.S. Mint had to stop selling Silver Eagles nearly a month ago?  It can only be for one of two reasons.  Either they had enough silver but could not produce coins fast enough to satisfy demand, or, they could not source enough silver to make the coins.  But this does not make any sense.  How could there be "too much demand" if everyone is selling?  Also, how could there not be enough silver available if everyone is selling and has sold?  Where did all of this "sold" silver go to?  Again, I dare anyone to come up with a logical answer to this.
We are also seeing the same thing in gold.  It is trading in backwardation ($7 plus) in London and with substantial premiums in India and throughout Asia.  If the masses are dumping gold then supply should be plentiful, how can physical tightness exist or premiums over the paper price exist if recently sold gold is falling out of dump trucks on their way to refineries?  Any logical answers for this?  The gold bashers say "see, the price is down, there is your proof".  Do Armstrong and crew deny that the only thing necessary to sell a COMEX gold or silver contract short is the ability to post margin?  Do they deny that "money" (margin) can be and is created for free ?  And then used to "water down" the futures in the same manner as a company over issues stock or a country over issues money supply?
There is a very real distinction between paper gold and physical gold, this will soon become apparent.  The difference is physical in your own control is no one else’s liability.  Paper gold on the other hand is the liability of the issuer of the contract.  Currently, COMEX has a whopping 11.7 tons left of deliverable gold left.  JP Morgan claims to have less than four tons, these are the lowest numbers I can ever remember.  To put it in perspective, 11.7 tons of gold is worth less than $400 million dollars.  The COMEX can now be broken and exposed with petty cash!  As sure as the Sun will rise tomorrow, there will eventually be a "call" on real gold.  Not only on COMEX gold but ALL paper gold …any call will not be met because the gold does not exist to meet the call.  There are now more than 100 paper ounces of gold sold for every one ounce of real gold that exists to deliver.  If there were 100 fake shares of IBM trading and watering down every one real share in existence, the price of IBM stock would be trading in the low single digits!  The fake shares would alter perception but not the reality of what the company is worth as an ongoing concern.
Another area to touch on is the "threat" of the Fed raising interest rates.  I view a rate hike as ONLY a threat at this point and will get into that shortly.  Looking back, the Fed has floated the idea of rate normalization ever since early 2010.  It was always six months out …and continually extended.  But this time they really mean it?  The consensus is now for a rate hike in September.  I can only say one thing to Janet Yellen and the gang, I DARE YOU!  In my opinion, if the Fed were to raise rates we might only have a functioning financial system for about 48 hours, I cannot see more than a week or two at the most.
Why is this you ask?  Let’s count the ways … First, global trade is already imploding.  China is entering a margin call scenario on many fronts.  An already strong dollar is pressuring an over indebted world that owes in dollars.  Internally, the U.S. is missing on many cylinders, retail sales and housing turnover already weak will become disastrous.  Reported economic numbers are barely treading water even with bogus assumptions and accounting.  Tightening credit will also have a negative effect on the banking system with razor thin margins and even more so in the derivatives complex.  Higher rates on their own will create margin calls, not to mention investors scrambling for the door in fear of even more rate hikes.  Panic begets panic in other words.
The way I see it, there is a very real probability the Fed not only does not raise rates in September, a very real chance exists for QE4 to be announced and implemented in a panic.  It should be added that the possibility of forced U.S. Treasury sales by China is a distinct possibility.  They may be forced to do this to shore up their panicky markets.  Who will be the buyer?  Yes of course, the Fed and ONLY the Fed!  It is my belief the Fed is about to be tested beyond breaking not only as lender of last resort but also "buyer of only resort" when it comes to the Treasury market.  Liquidity is already quite tight world wide, can the Fed really exacerbate the situation by raising rates?  Is any economy anywhere in the world strong enough to bare higher rates?  Any financial system solid enough?  I DARE THEM to raise rates …I bet they will instead be forced to do the opposite and pump unprecedented new liquidity!
Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome!


Gold – 2015 Report

Gold Report 2015
We are Preparing the new Precious Metals Report for 2015 covering the low and the potential for the future rally. The price will be $500 and each report will be watermarked with your name to ensure that we prevent mass distribution to ensure that this will be kept exclusive rather than on the front page of every newspaper or blogger. We will let you know when you can purchase this one.

Confidence Game

QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong,
humans often decide based on faith rather than thought if they have to choose one. Your ECM cycle is amazing, because it visualizes the change in confidence which influences so many decisions in the world!
Is it possible to reach human minds trough logic at all?
How can we communicate important concepts like your studies to others in the best way?
REPLY: The vast majority of people want to believe in some definitive higher power. Like the conspiracy issue. People just cannot grasp that perhaps there is nobody really in charge orchestrating everything and we are at the mercy of the whims of finance. I took my son-in-law to Washington for some high level meetings. I told him he better think twice before stepping behind the curtain for he really did not want to see what I see. When we left Capital Hill, he was stunned to realize that this is a runaway train. There is nobody in charge. All they do is try to deal with each crisis as it appears. There is no long-term strategy and certainly no planning. Everyone creates wonderful conspiracy theories trying to create plots of destroying the world with no rational comprehension that the people they are fantasizing about just are not that smart.
The G5 and Plaza Accord was all about talking the dollar down to reduce the trade deficit. The Fed is all about a confidence game. Everyone who knows anything about what really goes on will tell you – it is also a confidence game. People act in anticipation right or wrong. This is the origin of BUY the rumor but SELL the news.

TREASON & Exposing the Truth About Government

The German Attorney General has notified two German bloggers that they could be charged with TREASON for exposing the German involvement in collecting data along with the USA’s notorious NSA. Meanwhile, Oliver Stone has produced a movie on Edward Snowden due to be released by the end of the year.
What is most interesting is the new definition of TREASON. That is committed by anyone who exposes that the government is acting illegally. These people have completely destroyed our future. There now appears to be no other choice on the horizon by the full blown Crash & Burn. What they have created to sustain their power, has no possible end-game.

July 2015 Closing

As we approach the moneth-end closing for July 2015, we have a minor monthly bearish reversal at 1155 followed by the key reversal at 1084. The Bullish stands at 1287 so without a closing above that level, then nothing has changed.
Crude oil has a monthly bearish reversals at 5650 and 4667. We fell intraday to 4668 holding the critical Bearish Reversal for now. However, lower prices are still on the horizon.
The Dow Jones Industrials will provide a bearish signal on a month-end closing below 17714. Otherwise, the Dow remains neutral for now.
The Euro has a Monthly Bearish Reversal at 106.70. So far the lowest monthly closing has been 107.42
The markets are still pausing for the ECM setting the stage for what comes afterwards. We are going to need to pay attention here very closely.

“Forecaster” Showing on August 1st – Sold Out

AMC-Lowes-Cherry Hill
After increasing the theater size twice, “The Forecaster” will be shown in the largest theater AMC has, which can accommodate 380 seats. Sorry, this event has sold out. The film will begin at 5:00 PM but you can enter as early as 4:30 PM. Following the film, we will have a Q&A with myself and producer Marcus Vetter, who is flying in from Germany for this exclusive event.
Please print and bring the tickets you received via e-mail to the theater to present at the door. Our staff will be there to assist everyone.
See you at the movies!


Why the Politicians are Laughing – Hillary’s Unapologetic Corruption

According to the Wall Street Journal, total donations by UBS to the Clinton Foundation grew from less than $60,000 at the end of 2008 to approximately $600,000 by the end of 2014. The Wall Street Journal reports that the bank also lent $32 million through entrepreneurship and inner city loan programs that it launched in association with the Clinton Foundation. At the very same time, they were paying former President Bill Clinton $1.5 million to participate in a series of corporate Q&A sessions with UBS Chief Executive Bob McCann. You really cannot make up this stuff.
On top of that, the Inspector General recommended that the Justice Department investigate Hillary’s erasing of emails for that would have clearly been criminal. Of course, the Justice Department would NEVER investigate Hillary while in the hands of the Obama Administration. This is why the whole executive structure of government is broken.
The Justice Department is way too political, as are the judges who endorse whatever the government does. In our own case, here I was with tapes documenting market manipulations by the banks. The court receiver, Alan Cohen, was appointed to run Princeton Economics. Goldman Sachs then hired Cohen after threatening to imprison all the lawyers if the deid not hand over all tapes. Goldman made Cohen a member of the Board of Directors. However, CohenNEVER resigned from the court and continued running Princeton Economics from the board at Goldman. Come on! You cannot make up this type of outright corruption/conflict of interest; it is to the point where they simply do not care.

The Fed Rate Hike & U.S. Equities

CSP500-M july 2015
Sometimes it really does not matter what the underlying truth might be – markets move based upon anticipation and typically reverse with the news. The Fed is looking more and more like it will begin to raise interest rates for it can see that the pension funds are in trouble. They need higher rates to survive.
The U.S. share market should drop with that anticipation, creating the false move. So a decline into the ECM target (Sept. 30 – Oct. 1, 2015) will be very healthy for the long-term. A drop in equities will send the last bit of capital rushing into the U.S. short-term debt, taking those rates negative to the extreme, cementing the major high in government. Thereafter, the reality of a failed political system should gradually make its way to the general public’s understanding by early 2016.

The Supply Side of Gold

A gold standard has never worked for one primary reason: the “money supply”cannot increase based upon economic conditions or politicians, rather it can increase due to new discoveries. This introduces the same flow concerned fiat money. The 19th century was plagued by the gold discoveries in California, Alaska, and Australia. Likewise, the discovery of gold in South America by the Spanish created massive inflation in Europe during the 16th century. The idea that gold provides some tangible value for money is absurd, for it has always risen and fallen in value based upon market conditions. Gold would no more provide a check against inflation than paper money. The only way to provide a stable money supply is to eliminate career politicians and stop the borrowing by government
Well, when it rains, it pours. In the Sudan, a large discovery of gold amounting to 43 tons has occurred, an amount expected to rise to 80 tons by the end of 2015, which is equivalent to a market value estimate of $2,555,262,400 if the market stays the same. The entire U.S. gold reserve is 8,000 tons. So, we are talking about a sizable discovery in the Sudan. The Sudanese government anticipates mining an additional 100 tons of gold in 2016. 
From a supply-demand perspective, this could crush gold psychologically. In the long run, it will only have an impact when demand lags. It all depends upon the cost of production. When the monetary system cracks, that will be the focus. The markets will cherry-pick the news for that is always what they do.
The likelihood of the dollar collapsing is at zero right now. The crisis is manifesting in Europe first. The dollar will be driven higher as capital seeks to get off the grid and hide. The U.S. debt of $18 trillion is still a tiny fraction of the near $160 trillion in total world debt. It’s all a matter of perspective. Simply put, gold will rally ONLY when the stage is set. It will rise to the monetary crisis in the future – not right now.

The Flight from Gold

To make a market peak in a phase transition, the 99% must be bullish. Likewise, to create the low, the 99% have to be bearish. This is simply the way markets function. Now we begin to see the bearishness rise in the precious metals because quite frankly, the gold promoters put out such total bullshit with endless excuses to explain why they are always wrong, this group helps to create that attitude of rendering the precious metals a joke among mainstream investments and without that there is no bull market. The Wall Street Journal sais, Let’s Be Honest About Gold: It’s a Pet Rock.”  Bloomberg News ran an article saying “Gold Is Only Going to Get Worse.” The Washington Post says, “Gold is Doomed.” 
The Deutsche Bank analysis warns that gold needs to fall further by 30% to reach $750 an ounce in order to bring prices back towards long-running historical averages. The bank analysis factors in world growth, the U.S. dollar, money supply, and central bank gold purchases with fair value calculated at $785 an ounce. Gold is clearly starting to build that force we have warned is required to make the major low. Then there is the extreme forecast of $350 published by Market Watch: Two reasons why gold may plunge to $350 an ounce.
Gold must lose all its friends, and the gold promoters must be fully discredited. This is how markets top and bottom no matter what market we are talking about. Of course, the hate mail is coming in, asking if I am satisfied. My answer: when are you going to use your brain instead of acting like a brainwashed pawn, no different from the recruits of ISIS? The gold promoters have hurt a lot of people and ruined their financial futures, yet people blame me because they made a stupid “investment” based upon propaganda. The gold promoters may even see class action lawsuits filed against them for masquerading fake analysis as real analysis. You cannot have a conflict of interest and be an objective observer, no less an analyst, at the same time. After all, when the major investment banks put out such nonsense as fake analysis, they were charged with fraud and paid huge fines for the same sort of nonsense they called analysis during the DOT.COM bubble. There is no difference. You CANNOT be an analyst and sell gold at the same time, or be on the payroll of those who sell gold, or the bankers who were manipulating markets for short-term gains.
You have to shake the tree before a reversal in trend ever takes place, regardless of the market. The majority of the sentiment must swing against gold, for in the end that will be the fuel that reverses the trend – short covering, not fresh buying. The low will be a question of TIME and PRICE, and when that combination is achieved, then and only then will the market reverse. Instead of blaming me, try learning something about how markets functions if you want to play the game. If you are not capable of digesting anything but propaganda, well keep buying until to cannot even feed the dog.
There are still the gold promoters who claim they can prove that paper gold suppresses the gold price. If that were true, it would apply to all futures, and besides that fact, they have no problem when gold rallies in the futures market. If their theory were correct, then why buy gold? Give up and buy stocks.
“Paper gold” is the ONLY reason that gold is a viable market. Without a central clearing house, any commodity becomes illiquid. How do you price it? It becomes an art. Its value becomes a matter of opinion. You only ever hear how “paper gold” suppresses the gold price in a bear market. During bull markets, they love the futures markets. Could it be that these people are just hopelessly biased and desperate to try to explain why they are in a losing trade?
Others cry that rising demand caused the U.S. mint to stop production to keep up with the demand, meaning gold is suppressed by paper gold elaborately resorting to supply-demand theories. What they totally ignore is that at the peak in markets, it is the demand for futures because the bulk of people “trade” and do not want to physically take possession of gold. They trade on leverage. These promoters totally ignore that the concentration of capital into a single sector that creates the Phase Transition or the flight of capital that creates the Waterfall. They come up with elaborate theories to explain why they are wrong when in fact they do not understand that EVERYTHING rises and falls in value. It is not even that people fall out of love with gold; it is the simple fact that they can make more money elsewhere.
A $1,000 investment in gold in 1980 vs. a $1,000 investment in the Dow Jones Industrials shows that the latter made money and the former lost more than 50%, since adjusted for inflation gold must be $2300 to breakeven. Gold has not been in a real bull market, measured in international value terms. So all the hype, claims, and finger-pointing means absolutely nothing. This is not a religious cult like ISIS – it is a market. If you distrust the monetary system, fine. But be rational about the timing and how the world functions.
So, sorry. I totally disagree with gold promoters. Gold will have its time to rally and futures will be a key element in helping to create the next bull market. Just utter nonsense with more excuses, one after the other. Why are all futures markets not suppressed? Under this theory, the U.S. share market must be worth 10 times its current value for it must be suppressed by paper futures and ETFs.
The conspiracy theories are just astonishing. The latest claims state that the world will end in September:
Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015. The day when the elite (the Rothschilds, the Rockefellers, etc.) have scheduled a worldwide financial collapse to occur. They intend to accomplish this by initiating a sudden spike in interest rates, which will trigger an implosion in the global derivatives market, effectively rendering all currencies worthless – including the U.S. dollar. Subsequently, we will all awake on Monday, Sept. 14, 2015 to a permanently changed world.
Just what would such families gain by destroying the world economy? Their wealth is measured in the same currencies. This is why gold is not ready for prime time because nobody in their right mind wants to be associated with this stuff. Where is your tinfoil hat? This total fraud has to stop.
No market is a one-way street. We explained that the peak in gold completed a 13-year rally and a correction would then follow from 2011. We also provided the target that gold would crack the $1,000 level, and provided the timing for the low with the reversal in trend. That is called analysis. Nothing moves only in one direction. All markets rise, fall, and then rise again. Open your eyes and learn market movement if you want to play the game. If you want to believe you are a victim of the bank manipulations, go right ahead. Then why invest in something that never rises unless you enjoy being the victim?


Hi Martin, I like that you are very open minded when in comes to future tech which will change the world and dogmas (like electric cars and gas becoming obsolete etc.). One of these things is also electronic money which will make physical money obsolete as well. I am just curios why you put so little attention to cryptocurrencies. I know you think of them as low market cap asset class and government can prohibit them any time if they feel they threaten their tax income. However I can easily imagine a future where cryptocurrencies are used by government in the regulated manner as they are forced to react to advancing technology. The same way they were forced to react to electronic cigarettes or will be forced to react to electric cars by taxing something else than tobacco or gas. The same way they will HAVE to find a way how to integrate cryptos into the society and still keep the taxation unchanged, in my opinion. It would be lovely to hear more from you on Bitcoin and other cryptos!
Have a nice day and keep the great work!
ANSWER: There is no doubt that we will move toward electronic money. I am skeptical about private cryptocurrencies because anything that threatens those in power losing control or avoiding taxes will be hunted down with a vengeance. The big problem government has with moving fully electronic is that not everyone has a computer and about 50% of the world does not even have a bank account.
Personally, I still have cash and avoid E-ZPass as well. Governments promised that they would never use E-ZPass technology for speeding tickets, but they lied. A friend received a speeding ticket in the mail from Virginia, stating that they drove through the E-ZPass lane 10 mph above the speed limit. I remain skeptical about government because they are simply not trustworthy.