The Dow as we Approach 2015.75
QUESTION: Hi Marty,
Thanks for all the insights as always. Just one thing confusing me – as of October 2015, when the ECM turns down, what happens to the markets? On one blog you wrote a temporary setback in US markets, in another “It is about CONFIDENCE. As the ECM turns down, then you will see the US economy go with it andCONFIDENCE will crash and burn.”
While I know things will change as we get closer to that date – which is it – go to cash in September (or March of this year) and buy again end 2015 or ride the vol of the US equity markets, the Swiss and FTSE (and China and Nikkei)?
Thanks
see you in oct/nov
see you in oct/nov
ANSWER: Everything depends upon what we get going into the end of September. We could see important highs in some markets outside the USA. However, if we achieve a high at that time, then there should be a fake-out decline BEFORE we turn back up. If we peak early in the June/July period and bottom at that time. then we should see a rally thereafter. This will all become clear as we approach the summer. Currently the Dow is pushing a bit higher so we could create the early version high with the low going into the ECM. Longer-term, that would tend to be better. The resistance is still in the 18500-18600 area for now. Exceeding that level on a weekly closing basis at this time will be of some concern. We are not at the highs in Energy currently.
And We Pay Politicians to Watch Porn?
Studies have shown that people in the SEC were busy watching porn while making the financial world safe – or to be specific, the bankers safe from the people. The same was uncovered in London administrations. Well now it has come out that the same pastime exists in Brussels. Nobody is ever punished in government because they are all doing it. And we pay these people €400,000 annually for part-time jobs to behave extremely badly on every front?
Global Warming v Environment
QUESTION:
Martin
Your writings have brought me from the global warming is a “fact” side back to the undecided. I understand the cycles you are speaking about but I still cannot understand how we dismiss the horrible effects man places on this world between emissions, plastic, garbage, knocking down entire rain Forrest’s fracking I’m mean the list is a mile long
How one can say man can do no wrong is beyond me it’s like saying man didn’t cause the extinction of certain animals it’s all cyclical. Well if you kill enough they will go extinct.
How do you remove mans negatives on the world. So no matter how much junk we throw in the ocean the ocean will be fine?
Thank you
JCL
ANSWER: There is a major distinction between man having the ability to alter the weather cycles and destroying the environment. In London during the 1980s, the air quality was horrible. The buses pouring diesel smoke in the air making it actually hard to breath. I loved London, but hated the air quality. Today the buses have been cleaned up and London is pleasant once again.
These are important issues about our environment. The problem becomes when people take an issue and then distort it for personal reasons no less gain. This is like the gold promoters telling people to buy gold because there is no gold in Fort Knox. Even if this were true, good luck in proving it. They exaggerate their claims denying there are cycles making the majority look at them as shysters since everything rises and falls.
Fracking seems to destroy the underground water. Throwing junk in the Ocean with hospital waste etc that washed up on beaches is criminal. But these things are separate and distinct from altering historical weather cycles. They discredit making sure we do not “shit where we eat” by going to extremes claiming we have altered the weather. Let’s just keep it real without the lies.
There is a resilience to life. The exclusion zone around the Chernobyl nuclear power plant of about 1100 km after its meltdown about than 20 years ago, has turned out to be anything but the dire predictions. Mice were found to have mutated since they reproduce extremely fast. After several generations, they actually began to thrive on radiation. Humans were evacuated and animals moved in. Like the Black Plague, more than 50% died during the 14th century while others adapted and survived. It is never a 100% impact in either direction.
It is not a choice between living in filth and the environment. Nobody wants to live where they cannot breath. But to use normal cyclical weather patterns to try to accomplish other goals is an outright fraud. Then to request billions of dollars to study what you made up, well that is outright criminal.
Man is not capable of altering the trend of weather. Sure we can throw garbage on the street, but that will not change the weather. We need to stop this assumption we can play God.
Fundamentals & Fractals
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; Your piece on fundamental analysis is fascinating. The more I thought about it the more I saw the light. This is why the gold promoters hate you so much. They lure people in with total bullshit from manipulations, paper gold, missing gold Fort Knox, and how Shanghai would end paper gold in New York. Then some ask for donation to investigate manipulators that only sell the market. They are the ultimate manipulators. They are either sublimely stupid or crafty con-artists selling to unsuspecting people a land of fiat and dreams. The saying that the trend is your friend makes sense. People will interpret whatever news based upon the trend in motion. Supply and Demand depend entirely upon the trend. Am I correct in that conclusion? Thank you for being the lone voice of reason KR
ANSWER: Yes, you are correct. Just because you increase the supply of anything does not mean that prices will decline be it a commodity, stock, bond, or money. If demand rises more rapidly, as it typically does compared to supply, prices will rise and that becomes the trend. Because prices then rise, this stimulates ultimately the expansion in supply.The two are offset and do not peak or bottom together. They are like pistons in a combustion engine working together but not simultaneously in the same direction. Illustrated above, the rally in stocks going into 1929 unfolded (1) because of capital inflows, and (2) the supply of stock was insufficient to meet demand. You can see that only toward the end of the cycle the supply of new offerings increased rapidly and exceeded demand. You saw gold miners expand only when price rose. This accounts for then over-supply at the top. As the price collapses, mines shut down becoming that contraction in supply that then sets the stage for the next rally. 
There is so much hidden order within the system it is mind numbing. If we take the 8.6 frequency and look at the fractal structure, 43.0769 years from 1932 low brings us nearly to the 1966 high and 86.1538 years added to 1929 brings us to this target in 2015. There is an order to everything as well as a time and place. There is nothing which is purely random. No matter what, a pattern and cycle will always surface. The layers of order are incredibly deep like an onion – we just keep peeling each layer back to discover another remarkable hidden order hiding beneath.Intelligence Agencies Plant Fake Evidence to Start Wars
Are we facing a complete breakdown of trust when it comes to government? They appear to have allowed 911 to take place knowing well in advance of the attack the same as the evidence concerning Pearl Harbor. Then there was Operation Northwoods where they proposed killing Americans in a staged terrorist attack to justify invading Cuba. We all know about the claimed “weapons of mass destruction” used by Cheney to make Halliburton a very rich company, but info is now starting to trickle out that evidence about Iran might be questionable as well. It is now emerging in the press that a 15-year-old Central Intelligence Agencysting existed to allege nuclear weapons were being created in Iran. It is getting to the point can we trust anything anymore put out by government?
Turkey turning Authoritarian – A Dangerous Global Trend
In Turkey, fights have broken out in Parliament as proposed legislation has been introduced to eliminate all civil liberties. The new police bill provides dramatically increased police powers allowing them to arrest, search and use firearms during demonstrations. They can now imprison protesters without charges, lawyers, judges, or any civil rights whatsoever at all for up to 48 hours in unspeakable conditions.The entire world is moving closer and closer toward authoritarianism. This is our greatest danger in a Private Wave. As people learn to distrust government, they become abusive and view the people as the enemy.
Australian Police Give you Tickets Based on their Estimates of Speed
Yes, believe it of not, New South Wales is so desperate for money the police are just tax agents with wheels who can ticket you just because. Police Downunder are now considered to be “experts” and can pull you over and give you speeding tickets based solely on what they THINK you might be doing. They do not even have radar. They just “estimate” what they think you are doing to give you tickets. This whole thing with governments desperate for money merely because of their fiscal mismanagement is turning government into con-artists. This is really getting out of control on a global scale. What kind of society are our children facing 10 to 20 years from now?
If you Want to Kill Someone – Call the Police & Just Say He Has Gun
The sheer number of police style executions is becoming alarming. Criminals shoot criminals like Mafia and Drug dealers more often than citizens in turf wars. But the police are the real threat for they are never accountable no matter how outrageous their actions have become. Police never rat on each other and government protects them because they protect government from the people. So you do not shit where you eat.
This time. they executed a homeless man hitting him some 80 times. He was so dead, they had to cremate him for there was no face left. Just unbelievable.