It’s More than just a Debt Bubble – It’s a Social Bubble
Our computer is monitoring everything everywhere and it correlates the world. Everything is tested against everything from adzuki beans in Tokyo and palm oil to wheat, gold, DAX, FTSE and the Dow. We also include nature, weather, earthquakes, politics, and social trends. You would be amazed but as an economy expands, the family size and birth rates decline, divorce rises with affluence, and this is in itself a sign of a pending collapse.
Just look at marriage and what a disaster we have made of that since 1900 the same as Rome. Yes, the first Roman Emperor Augustus (27BC-14AD) introduced family laws outlawing bachelors, restricting divorce, banish Ovid for his writings and banished his own daughter for promiscuity. There were laws introduced forbidding the payment of a prostitute with a coin that had the image of the emperor which they all did. Hence, the birth of sex tokens. The client bought the token, paid the prostitute, and she then redeemed the token all making it nice and legal.
During the 19th century, the age difference dropped to 25% whereas typically the male was 2x the age of his wife for he had to FIRST establish himself to afford a family when there was no government programs during the 18th century. The age difference declined with the rise in economic power and government Hollywood and socialism caused that differential to drop dramatically to virtually the same age. But men mature slower than women and the divorce rate rose in direct proportion to the age differential decline. London has become the divorce capital of the world.
Today, 70% of those dating believe in love at first sight with expectations of happily ever after and run to the lawyers with the first argument. This is part of the bubble that is unfolding. We are reversing social trends with the collapse in debt markets. What use to be secure becomes insecure. A lot is changing gradually before our eyes. Socialism has wiped out the traditional family structure along with pensions and fiscal irresponsibility. Those with daughters, you better start realizing that he future should be secure. That is what the Dowry was all about – a pension for the woman, She married a stable older man who provided the security. This is what is starting to return and studies are starting to emerge showing a man’s life expectancy increases with a younger wife for she keeps he more active. Looks like the old trends are returning. Strangely, women with younger men die faster. Perhaps the stress of having to wear the pants or they cannot keep up with the younger man. Thomas Jefferson was 18 when he married his wife who was 23. They were married for 11 years during which she gave birth to 6 children, all but two died and only one lived past 25.
US Share Market
The Dow closed higher with an inside day. The turning points this week seem to be Wednesday (minor) and Friday (main). A reaction high this week still points to a lower low perhaps for the week of November 3rd. It appears that the Phase Transition in stocks will be postponed into the downside of the ECM. This is a reflection of the bubble that is unfolding in debt. This looks like the BIG BANG we targeted for 2016 is unfolding as we first scheduled back in 1985.
Many email have been coming in about the 1985 forecasts. This is what I mean there cannot be personal opinion. NOBODY can point and forecast something like this 30 years in advance with any such specific events. Long-term trends are set in motion and are un-changeable. Fundamentals are simply noise. Market commentators can and do take the same event and can construct it as bullish or bearish to fit the immediate price action. Like when news is bullish but stocks still decline – they then say “it was not bullish enough.”
This is the whole point of converting Socrates to run with access to the Web and to move the company public. This is not about “me” personally. This is about creating access to the knowledge of centuries. We all live and die and with death our knowledge evaporates into thin air. What if we can capture that knowledge and really pass it on to our children?
This is my goal. We can live within the cycles instead of trying to pretend we can control the universe. We are human, subject to the battle with nature. We have been living a dream thinking government can do anything.
Awaiting ECB Stress Test – Good One
This coming Sunday will see the results of the ECB’s stress tests. Eagerly awaited by some, feared by others.
Well it appears the only reason there was support for the European peripheral bond markets over the weekend was the fact that they were closed! From the opening this morning the trading theme was, “risk-off”. The talk was that initial weakness came from Spain’s, Bono’s (after last weeks poor auction tap), Portugal’s PGB’s and Italian, BTP’s. 10yr spreads were +17, +15 and +13bp respectively. At this stage the rumours were HF selling, PIMCO (rumoured again) the suspension in trading of shares in Italian bank Monte De Paschi obviously did not help.
Regardless, it is becoming more apparent we are in a risk off mode and that is unnerving the markets; especially when bonds are supposed to be a safe-haven!
US Prosecutors Continue to Destroy World Economy
The greatest problem with prosecutors in the USA, they are totally ignorant of the implications that result from their attempt to win at all costs. Attacking foreign banks and threatening them to be disbarred from conducting transactions in US dollars is driving the world into a no choice situation where we will see a one world currency sooner rather than later. Prosecutors think they can have power, but all they are doing is destroying the world economy. Transactions will need to be done in any currency other than dollars.
The demands on Standard Charter may force up to 8,000 small businessoperations in UAE alone to be shut down. This is turning into throwing out all small to medium-sized companies as large banks only deal with big companies. Job growth comes from the small to medium-sized companies and they are the ones being wiped out.
The Rise of Putin and The Fall of The Russian-Jewish Oligarchs
Arthur Burn’s Advice During Recession ’75 – Cut Deficit & Taxes
Arthur Burn’s testified before Congress on the economic crisis – the first to unfold in the new Floating Exchange Rate system that began in 1971. Keynesian Economics as practiced by government was dead anf taxes had risen to outrageous;y the 90% level until the first tax cut by Kennedy. Burns delivered hisrecommendation during the recession of 1975 that still remains sound advice today, which is too late now. The second tax cut by Reagan finally restored the American economy and long-term growth.
The unions at that time in 1975 as always wanted to increase government spending and hand it to them as they demand today. Burns warned that would lead to ruinous inflation and it certainly did. Inflation soared into 1980 with gold and then Volcker responded raising interest rate to excessive levels. Today, we have increased spending, but we have excessively high taxes and worst yet, they are hunting capital and shutting down the world economy faster than it took to create it after World War II. The insane passage of FATCA is just wiping out international capital at such an alarming rate.
I met with the Treasury in the early 1980s warning that the crazy hike in interest rates would cost the government tremendously and that the national debt would rise from $1 trillion to $6 by 1990.
Today, we are imploding and they are trying to hide the numbers including things which are illegal to boost economic activity in Europe. Just legalize everything from drugs to prostitution and gambling and tax it all to increase the collapsing GDP. Why not count divorce settlements as new income and really boost GDP. Let’s not forget allowances we hand kids or spending money at college. Hey, that’s all income, why should family mean anything when government needs money? We can only play games so long.