Academia – The Great Fraud?
If we look at the world leaders, nobody has a degree in leading a nation. Most are lawyers. Even if we look at Christine LaGarde, she too is a lawyer running around threatening nations to give up foreigners or they will be banish from the world club while she sits in the Troika dictating the future of Europeans politically and economically, yet she again has no degree in what she is doing.
The question that rises to the surface is clearly what good is a degree when you cannot get one to be a world leader, politician, hedge fund manager, portfolio manager, or just about anything other than a doctor, lawyer or a civil engineer?
Geniuses typically clash with their teachers because teachers do not encourage original thought as several studies have shown. Teachers want kids who obey and follow orders. Winston Churchill was terrible in school yet without him Hitler would have died in a retirement home. Albert Einstein’s teacher famously decreed he would amount to nothing. Here is what Gandhi had to put up with:
When Mahatma Gandhi was studying law at the University College of London, a professor, whose last name was Peters, disliked him intensely and always displayed animosity him.
Also, because Gandhi never lowered his head when addressing him as he expected, there were always “arguments” and confrontations.
One day, Mr. Peters was having lunch at the dining room of the University, and Gandhi came along with his tray and sat next to the professor. The professor said,”Mr Gandhi, you do not understand. A pig and a bird do not sit together to eat.”
Gandhi looked at him as a parent would a rude child and calmly replied, “You do not worry professor. I’ll fly away,” and he went and sat at another table.
Mr. Peters, reddened with rage, decided to take revenge on the next test paper, but Gandhi responded brilliantly to all questions.
Mr. Peters, unhappy and frustrated, asked him the following question:
“Mr Gandhi, if you were walking down the street and found a package, and within was a bag of wisdom and another bag with a lot of money, which one would you take?”
Without hesitating, Gandhi responded,
“The one with the money, of course.”
Mr. Peters, smiling sarcastically said,
“I, in your place, would have taken the wisdom.”
Gandhi shrugged indifferently and responded,
“Each one takes what he doesn’t have.”
Mr. Peters, by this time was fit to be tied. So great was his anger that he wrote on Gandhi’s exam sheet the word “idiot” and gave it to Gandhi.
Gandhi took the exam sheet and sat down at his desk, trying very hard to remain calm while he contemplated his next move.
A few minutes later, Gandhi got up, went to the professor and said to him in a dignified but sarcastically polite tone, “Mr. Peters, you autographed the sheet, but you did not give me the grade.”
Wave Compression with Technology
QUESTION: Hi Marty,
I was wondering if your forecast models “compress” as we move into the future? Information spreads more quickly and everything moves faster and faster as we move through time due to advances in technology. Could this lead to contagion spreading from the collapse of Europe more quickly than your current models would indicate?
Also, would the plague cycle start to compress as well due to air travel? If we had air travel during the black plague things might have turned out a bit differently.
Thanks!
ANSWER: There are many different types of cycles that function differently. Yet what I discovered was something rather important and it goes to the very reason history repeats – because human nature does not change. On the surface you assume that technology will advance things and thereby compress the cycle. I would have thought the same thing. However, this is where allowing the data to guide the theory rather than the theory selectively finding data to justify its assumption is critical. The rise and fall of Athens from the Democratic revolution to its fall to Sparta was 51.6 years.
Even when we look at Rome during the 3rd Century when Diocletian (284-305AD)reformed the monetary system after the collapse, that reform lasted the same amount of time – essentially 51.6 years. The timing NEVER changes, which is interesting.
Putting together the monetary system of the world was the key to everything. This answered that question about compression and how do empires really rise and fall – is it like a slow landing of a 747 nice and gradual, or is it in the blink of an eye? When a system falls, it collapses rapidly and this takes society by surprise for they do not believe this is how everything functions.
The fall of Communism shook the world. All the CIA plots could never undermine China and Russia in such a manner. When China began with the demonstrations in Beijing on June 5th, 1989, the world shook indeed. Then the Berlin Wall went up August 13, 1961 and it fell November 9, 1989 or just over 28 years. Communism fell in Eastern Europe 1989–1990 and then came the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.
With respect to China, the birth of the People’s Republic of China was 1949. In just 27 years from the start of China moving toward a capitalistic system began to unfold. It was 1976 that marked the start of post-Mao reform and argue that China basically became a market economy by the end of the 90s before it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. Therefore, the Chinese economy became capitalist in two steps. First was the reform by the government that gave a taste of freedom to the people. The second phase was the 1989 Student Movement. By 2001, Jiang declared in his speech celebrating the eightieth birthday of the Communist Party that private entrepreneurs, private business owners, self-employed artists, white-collar professionals employed by foreign companies and joint ventures are welcome to join the Party. The power base of the current regime has shifted entirely away from its traditional constituency to the new social strata that represent the advanced force of production and new culture.
The question have cycles compressed? The answer is NO! If we look at the sweeping political reforms of phase II in China that erupted on June 5th, 1989 and then look at the fall of the Berlin Wall November 9, 1989, we are looking at about just 4.3 months. In ancient times, the Roman Republic began overthrowing their king in 509BC and by 508BC democracy emerged in Athens. The overthrow of monarchy swept the region. This event inspired the American revolution as well against monarchy.
Sure today information may travel in hours compared to a few days for a ship to sail from Rome to Athens. That is not the question. Once that information spreads, it still takes the same amount of time to sink in. So it does not seem to matter how fast we get the info there, it still takes the same amount of time to move the people. I have found no evidence of a compression. Only that volatility will rise with stronger convergences.
ECB Wiping out German Savers With Every Step It Takes
The interest rate policy of the European Central Bank has massive redistributive effects within Euroland. With every step it takes, the ECB continues to exploit Germany for the benefit of holding to the Euro by bailing out the rest of Europe. The German savers are been wiped out and sent into extinction as they see the bensts. The low interest rate policy moving negative has cost the private households in Germany since 2010 about €23 billion euros. In absolute terms, the German private households are thus the biggest losers of monetary policy in the financial crisis.
The confidence level in Germany for Euroland is still the highest within the region. We expect this to turn down very significantly in 2016.
PEW Research back in May placed the confidence in the EU at 63% in Germany. That was still 37% did not believe in the EU. The further one moves away from Germany, the lower the numbers. The total lack of confidence in the EU is appearing in Italy, and rightly so since it was their democratic process that the Troika staged a coup. Wiping out German savers will not save Europe. The confidence levels are simply far to low and this goes directly to the survive-ability of Europe as an entity.
Matteo Renzi of Italy, who has been Prime Minister of Italy since February 22, 2014, President of the Council of the European Union since July 1, 2014 and the Secretary of the Democratic Party since December 15, 2013, is attempting to transfer the risks of bailing out Italian banks to the ECB and thus the European taxpayer. Mario Draghi’s master plan is to save Italy withe lowest confidence levels in hopes of boosting the rest of Europe. But this scheme comes at the high price to the rest of the European taxpayers – especially Germans.
Renzi now sees the great opportunity to solve his problems in Italy – or so he thinks. Working in association with the Bank of Italy, he wants to ensure state guarantees for junk bonds that the ECB will buy from the Italian banks enabling then to decrease their bad loans. The Germans are starting to get worried. This is the problem with the Euro. You cannot create a single currency without a single government. All member states must surrender their sovereignty to the centralized planning just as in Communism.
This is why body language is starting to be noticed. Mario Draghi seemed very nervous and fidgety at the press conference after the ECB meeting in Naples not just because of the riots outside. He took a long time to answer the questions of the journalists and his answers were also more in the nature of excuses and phrases. Draghi always promised a new magic bullet that would save Europe. Yet everything the Troika is doing has had no effect because taxes keep rising and they are just brain-dead that socialism is collapsing.
Several times Draghi emphasized that everything that the ECB has been used, was exceptional. The banks will still not lend, inflation will not be restarted, and even negative rates cannot possibly help. These measure cannot and will not reverse the collapse in confidence. Lowering rates WILL NOT stimulate an economy when CONFIDENCEdeclines sharply. The confidence in the ECB’s magical powers is coming to an end as journalists appeared less than impressed.
The Italian, German and Irish are no longer confident in the Euro. This is being reflected where reporters are daring to even question whether Draghi was not worried that the Euro-skeptics are gaining ground. This is a trend even inside Germany. Draghi’s response: He understood the German critics were not only against the ECB, but also several countries do not want to do what the ECB directs. Asked if he saw the announcement of France to throw the deficit limits overboard, as a problem for the monetary policy of the ECB, Draghi takes on a formalist position stating he will only be able to form an opinion when the numbers are in.
CONFIDENCE inside the Troika is also collapsing. What will be left on the other side of 2015.75 is going to be a stark comparison.
Government Cannot Regulate Anything – Bernanke Denied Mortgage With No Steady Income
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been turned down for refinancing his home mortgage. Bernanke said: ”Between ourselves, I have recently tried unsuccessfully to refinance my mortgage loan” he told Bloomberg at a conference in Chicago.
Reason, the lending standards in the USA were regulated. Ben went from having a steady job with regular income to a speaker and author whose income is now unpredictable. But as everything government does, they just cannot ever regulate the real world when they are not part of it.
Cycle in Bacteria
COMMENT: Hello Martin
I’m writing about antibiotics, it’s becoming widely recognised that bacterial superbugs are developing which have genetically adapted to antibiotics in common use. The meat industry is a major perpetrator of the bad use of antibiotics, and there’s a concern that the health industry could get to a stage where there’s nothing to offer people after surgery to kill bacteria, making all forms highly risky. (There are more natural plant based solutions, but pharmaceutical companies can’t patent plants – only their own version). Antibiotics are used to kill bacteria, but people save them to use on a virus, further increasing the likely hood of adaptation.
This article is based on the World Health Organisations report on antibiotic resistance:
REPLY: This shows that there is a cycle in nature. We have to understand that absolutely everything moves in a cycle and that means we can see disease resurge.