Benchmark Cycles
COMMENT: Marty; the metals report is amazing. The chapters illustrating the Benchmark Cycles is worth the price alone. I never saw cycles shown in so many variations and functions. That chapter by itself proves the goldbugs prefer to be wrong and no matter how far gold declines, they will always be in denial. I was one. Thank God for you I have survived. They defend theories at the price of constant losses. This is about making money. Not contributing to the very people they say manipulate gold. I cannot imagine why you would buy something that cannot rise. Your report shows it so clearly. There is a time and place for everything.
Thanks so much for this eye-opening report. I cannot wait for the stock markets and currencies.
KD
REPLY: The old saying you cannot lead a horse to water comes to mind. They will always try to attack me with opinion for that is all they have. I agree, how can you defend someone who only says buy and then when you lose they blame manipulation but tell you to buy more. This is the most stunning fraud game of all time. I cannot believe some of these people are being paid by the very banks who want to sell.
The Benchmark Cycles clearly show how markets perform and when they produce highs you astonishingly have a bull market. When they flip and produce lows – guess what! It’s a bear market. You have to divorce yourself of the rhetoric. The same fundamentals have been regurgitated since 1971. They have proved nothing and caused many to lose everything.
This is about making money – not donating it to the banks. When this movie comes out you will hear someone say they talked to the main player in the metals say publicly they assumed they could always crush me. But in truth, I usually won. You cannot manipulate anything against the trend – only within the trend be it markets or politics. Why do you think the banks need bailouts all the time? They do not look at trend and assume they can just push things their way, and when that fails, they blow up big time for they fail to honestly use risk management.
Is a Long-term Gold Bear Market Possible?
QUESTION: Hi Martin,
Thank you for publishing the Metals report. I was just wondering what would cause a bear market in gold , no one has really written or talked about what that would mean. Would it mean that we finally get to see behind the curtains as they try to turn the “ship” around….. ?
Many thanks
J
ANSWER: Taking the metals down short-term is simply a function of further liquidation and a rising dollar. Long-term, I do not see where a return of a bear market is possible. The gold promoters talk about debt and hyperinflation. But that fails to look at real history rather than the few examples of revolutionary governments. The common bond between the hyperinflation of Germany, Hungary, Zimbabwe, France, and colonial America (Continental Dollars) is not paper money – it is the collapse in confidence in government. That unfolds in placed in Germany and Zimbabwe when there IS NO DEBT because people will not buy their bonds. When there is a debt and the government is an established one with power, they first turn against the people and hunt taxes, twist the rule of law so they win, and that creates deflation. The final nail comes like it did in the city of Mainz – no bid for the debt.
The assumption by the gold promoters has been they will just print more money to cover the debt. But honestly, that requires confidence to keep the game afoot. This is the common element. We will see the decline and fall in an OMG event and not progressive hyperinflation. France has already lost confidence of the people. Hollande has perhaps the lowest support number in all of history. But to save France, there will need to be another revolution for he is determined to stay where he is for the full term. France will crack and the EU may move to inflation BECAUSE they failed to establish a national debt market – one currency requires one debt and one government. As confidence in the EU is collapsing, now they are talking about issuing a national debt. But it is too late. They are exactly in the position of Germany and Zimbabwe compared to the USA which has a debt that is now supporting the world economy as reserves. There are important economic differences at stake here. This is not an issue of OPINION. There are serious structural differences that we will see as this unfolds.
So I do not see gold entering a long-term bear market. We have downside to contend with, but this is how markets simply function. Rome kept raising taxes and twisting the law so people just walked away from their property. They could not pay the taxes and the population moved to the suburbs started farms and relied upon themselves returning to a Villa economy of self-sufficiency.This then was transformed into serfdom for protection from barbarian invasions. Taxes kill the economy and cause people to move just as I reported they are moving from North to South inside the USA.
Will the Demise be Plague or Economics?
QUESTION:
Hello Marty. I have been reading you even before you’ve had a blog.
Always enjoy your articles.
Always enjoy your articles.
You have stated that the global economy will take a dump after
2015.75. You’ve also stated that the plague cycle started this year
and will peak in 2019. I read an article the other day that the
African Economy is dramatically slowing due to the Ebola problem. So my
question is, could the crashing global economy after 2015.75 (That
your computer is forecasting) be really due more to a plague problem
then a monetary issue? Being that the monetary is more of a secondary
issue.
2015.75. You’ve also stated that the plague cycle started this year
and will peak in 2019. I read an article the other day that the
African Economy is dramatically slowing due to the Ebola problem. So my
question is, could the crashing global economy after 2015.75 (That
your computer is forecasting) be really due more to a plague problem
then a monetary issue? Being that the monetary is more of a secondary
issue.
Regards, NGK
ANSWER: The plague cycle appears to be reaching an important high in 2019. This may be the preparation stages right now for it and it may be Ebola. We are attempting to gather the historical population and death numbers of past plagues to try to gauge this as a percentage of total population to see if we are talking about WWI epidemic levels or 14th century levels of a 50% death rate. It is not just the plague. It appears that everything that can go wrong – will go wrong. It is the collapse in pensions, the sovereign debt crisis, the war cycle, plagues, it just seems everything is coming at the same time. Strangely enough, we are running models on countries to see where is the best place. So far, New Zealand and Scotland are showing up. This is not a forecast yet. We have a lot of countries to run.
Ignorance of Cycles is Astonishing
Constantly we are bombarded by academics who take whatever trend is in motion and extend it out into the distant future. They did that with Global Warming and Al Gore’s forecasts portrayed a current time future TODAY where all ice should have been gone by now. There were predictions about food supply and over population by Malthus. There were predictions back in 1800 that New York City would be 2 feet deep in horse manure by now and unlivable.
Well here is the latest in linear thinking. The birth rate has collapsed everywhere – not just the USA pictured above. South Korea’s National Assembly Research Service has just put out its long-term view of the country’s present low birth rate will result in South Koreans becoming extinct by 2750. South Korean women have, on average, only 1.19 children. Assuming this trend continues, they project that the current population of 50 million will shrink to 40 million in 2056, 20 million in 2100, three million in 2200, one million in 2256 and zero in 2750. The last child to be born in the capital, Seoul, will arrive in 2505.
Indeed, the real irony here is the higher the tax rate, the lower the birth rate. The Roman Emperor Augustus (27BC-14AD) came out with family lawsfighting against the same trend. Rome was becoming like New York or London – infiltrated with foreigners. The birth rate collapsed and his Family Laws demanded that men could not remain bachelors. August saw the trend in motion and like South Korea, he too feared that native Romans would become extinct. As the more and more foreigners entered Rome, the blood lines were mixed. By the 3rd century AD, Marcus Julius Philippus (c. 204; 244–249AD) became Roman Emperor and he is known as Philip the Arab. Indeed, Obama is President demonstrating the very same trend that has always taken place.
This problem of a declining birth rate within society has always existed. With prosperity, the birth rate declines for one needed children as security for the future – your retirement. With wealth creation, the need for big families declines. With socialism, the state has replaced the need for family and this places us at greater risk for surviving as a society when the state fails in its obligations.
Phase two then unfolds. As the state needs more and more money to meet its obligations, taxes are raised and it becomes war against the people. Then comes the economic decline in government that is correlated to the rise in taxes. The higher the taxes, the less people can afford to support a family and the birth rates declines further as people become uncertain about the future.
Now we are facing the same cycle and this is worldwide. However, linear projections just do not work. There is a cycle to everything. We never bother to understand trend. WhenLady Thatcher spoke at our 1996 conference, she stated bluntly that she believed that government should look at cyclical trends.
Hollande Single-Handedly Destroys France
France is bankrupt and part of the Sovereign Debt Crisis comes when a government has to roll its debt and there is no bid. Next year, France’s President Francois Hollande must face a budget deficit along with the country’s biggest-ever rollover of existing debt in history. If there is no bid, we are looking at a crash in the Euro to perhaps par to 103 by 2016. I have stated at conferences the city of Mainz was in debt and each new issue paid off the last. When they could not sell the debt any more, they defaulted. Mainz was the boom town because that is where the Johannes Gutenberg (c. 1398–1468) started the printing revolution. The city boomed and with that boom the politicians started to borrow against what they thought would be an endless stream of revenue from taxes. The higher the pushed taxes, the more the rich fled precisely the same human reaction Hollande has set in motion. When they chase the rich out, tax revenues collapsed, no one would buy their debt and they defaulted. The creditors eventually sacked the city and burned it to the ground and the Pope excommunicated the politicians for greed.
We never learn from history because nobody bothers to ask – has anyone done this before? How did it end? Today, French Sales of medium- and long-term bonds will jump to €188 billion euros ($237 billion) in 2015 from €173 billion euros this year. The problem we have with ALL governments is they only borrow with no intention of ever paying anything back. It is one giant Ponzi scheme then imprison people in the private sector all the time for following the very same path by which government manages the affairs of society.
The French economy has stalled and inflation has collapsed to virtually record lows. France has moved beyond all hope of reversing the trend. The French budget deficit will widen in 2014 for the first time in five years and barely change in 2015. Austerity is dead, but these people cannot create jobs by chasing capital out of France. No matter what evidence I could present, Hollande will never back-off and he will not resign to save the country. He intends to go full term into 2017.
France is the second largest economy in the EU. Germany cannot bailout France. This is the fate of Europe and this same debt disease will migrate to Japan and then America. We are staring into the eyes of how the west will fall – the same way Communism fell – with a sudden OMG event. Germany has no army thanks to its Constitution. The US cannot afford to defend Europe and Europe can’t afford to defend itself. Putin is not stupid. We are reaching the very same moment when Rome fell because it could no longer pay the pensions of the military and the barbarians were then free to enter. Hello – history does repeat because of the stupidity of mankind knows no bounds. If I keep saying this – will government ever listen? A popular question. My view – perhaps but only when the collapse becomes obvious to them when there is no time left to reverse the trend. Hence – the crash and burn.