DOW Market Update
So far, everything has still followed the turning points. We got the fall in the US Share Market into early September and the bounce has been very strong. This is what I was warning about previously. The majority were very bearish and the shorts were lined up counting their profits. That provided the fuel for the surge rally. This market is still bullish for now and the possibility of doubling in a Phase Transition into 2015.75 remains unchanged – albeit not yet confirmed.
We can see even technically, the Dow fell but remained within the uptrend channel even on the daily level. There is ABSOLUTELY no spike high and that is required for a major bubble top. This has been the fundamental pundits who think they will not be fools this time and keep trying to sell the market. That is the very fuel we need for a breakout to the upside. That will eventually cause them to flip as they begin to buy the rally pronouncing this is a new era.
The weekly timing models show still the week of October 7th and that is where any shutdown will come into play over the debt ceiling. The Daily Bearish was not elected at the 14718.10 level. The Weekly Bearish were not elected and remain intact at 14450.00, 1480500, and 137800. We do have a Weekly Bullish to watch at 15714.00. A weekly closing ABOVE this is necessary to see a more sustainable breakout to the upside.
So far, everything has still followed the turning points. We got the fall in the US Share Market into early September and the bounce has been very strong. This is what I was warning about previously. The majority were very bearish and the shorts were lined up counting their profits. That provided the fuel for the surge rally. This market is still bullish for now and the possibility of doubling in a Phase Transition into 2015.75 remains unchanged – albeit not yet confirmed.
We can see even technically, the Dow fell but remained within the uptrend channel even on the daily level. There is ABSOLUTELY no spike high and that is required for a major bubble top. This has been the fundamental pundits who think they will not be fools this time and keep trying to sell the market. That is the very fuel we need for a breakout to the upside. That will eventually cause them to flip as they begin to buy the rally pronouncing this is a new era.
The weekly timing models show still the week of October 7th and that is where any shutdown will come into play over the debt ceiling. The Daily Bearish was not elected at the 14718.10 level. The Weekly Bearish were not elected and remain intact at 14450.00, 1480500, and 137800. We do have a Weekly Bullish to watch at 15714.00. A weekly closing ABOVE this is necessary to see a more sustainable breakout to the upside.
So what’s Going On Down on the Hill
It looks like we are headed to a shut down. The House will pass a Continuing Resolution for the debt ceiling, but they will include no funding for Obamacare. Not only do the Republican constituents demand they get rid of Obamacare, but as of January 1st, Congress is forced itself to go under this system. Many staff members are actually considering leaving Congress before January 1st for any pension would not be included. Those really worried about Obamacare personally are faced with a choice – lose coverage or leave.
The Democrats will not accept any condition attached to a Continuing Resolution that gets rid of what they see is their legacy – Obamacare. Obama will then veto it if it did pass the Senate. This means our model that has been targeting the week of October 7th for the last few months strangely has picked up the September low, but the crazy period of the weekly target being October 7th.
What is likely to happen is Boehner will side with the Democrats and do an end-run around the fiscal-conservative Republicans and do whatever he has to maintain the status quo. If Boehner were made dictator for a week, he too would not close or reform any agency in Washington. He believes in the tradition of Washington and sees no end-game here but to maintain the current state of affairs. He is a country-club Republican and he is one reason I warn there is no conspiracy long-term for they do not think about anything beyond the next move.
We are headed toward a Government Shut down. The Democrats welcome it because they think it will backfire on the Republicans and they expect total victory for the next election. But things are changing. Boehner and the Democrats was to keep it business as usual and this is precisely why we must crash and burn. Boehner was in support of attacking Syria. Whatever the establishment wants, he agrees with. If there was an armed uprising of terrorists in Canada, McCain and Graham would argue to the USA must invade to support the rebels. They have never met a country not invading as of yet.
Glen Downs Joining Our Blog
Glen Downs is a Chief of Staff on Capitol Hill working there for nearly 30 years. Glen sees what is coming and is also deeply concerned. He will be the first to tell you Congress will do nothing to prevent anything. While Glen is not into the forecasting role, he is behind the curtain and will share his observations as to what is really going on. The political commentators far too often make-up-stuff thinking they know what is going on. They talk to only the surface, rarely to the deep camp behind the curtain. But as we move into 2015.75, things are going to get really bad.
I have known Glen for many years. This is a major step for most people just go for the money role of lobbying. Glen wants to contribute to society, which is why we have been friends. I am greatly proud to announce that Glen will begin with providing inside interviews for this blog from the Hill.
Wow – What a Response
Sometimes I write something I think is fairly common knowledge among professionals and what comes back is astonishing. Our professional readers have poured in saying about time someone told the truth about how central bankers float ideas to test the market. But the shocker has been the response from political circles. There seems to be an amazement that the central bankers will not say the truth when testifying before Congress. It is not that they are lying. The point is they cannot tell the truth because everyone is listening.
I was giving an Institutional Seminar in Toronto. A group attended from the Central Bank of Canada – about 20-30 people. Everyone there knew who they were. The audience began asking me questions what was the central bank looking at for policy. I addressed the questions plainly stating the market expectations were flat-outright insane/wrong and that the central banks were not concerned with the machinations the market assumed. Every one would turn to look at their faces, which they kept stone cold.
When I was done, I went up to them and apologized if anything I bluntly said offended them. They said it was great. They wished they could stand up and yell you morons, we could care less about that nonsense. But they have to publicly appear stone face not to give a hint of anything either way. I began to realize we were needed to get info out and that served their purpose. Likewise, there were people in the German central bank that were feeding us info back before 1998 because they were against the Euro but could not say anything. So they fed us info of what was going on behind the curtain. They needed someone who was independent so it did not turn into inside-dealing.
They often called me the “priest” for central bankers needed someone to talk to. I discovered that the Bank of Canada would talk to me but nobody else – not even a finance minister of a Province. When I asked why, the reply was straight forward. (1) I was not Canadian, and (2) I was independent. If the Finance Minister of New Brunswick called and they told him but not the Finance Minister of Quebec, the ceiling would cave in. Likewise, they could not talk to a banker for that would be inside info. I found myself in a very unique position, but at the same time, I fulfilled what they needed, someone who could talk among all the banks and connect the dots.
So when Bernanke testifies, he is on guard. The politicians will never get the real answer in a public forum nor can they get a frank discussion without telling everyone. It is a strange world of conflicts and confidence. It keeps everyone generating theories, but that is just a guessing game.
Why Conspiracy Theories Are Total Rubbish
The assumption behind any conspiracy theory lies the idea that people act according to the LONG-TERM expectations. Unfortunately, just as you will one day pray for hyperinflation and the easy way out of this mess without oppression, you will also pray that the conspiracy theories are real for that would mean there is some plan and perhaps we could negotiate reason. If there is no conspiracy and all we are doing is looking at the next trade or what has to be done to win a vote and the hell with implications long-term, then the outcome is far worse. That means we crash and burn and we lose everything. There is no giant conspiracy that will keep the structure intact. We are facing a structural collapse because there is NO plan – just knee jerk reactions.
Behind the Stories – There is the Truth
COMMENT FROM ONE OF OUR MAJOR HEAD INSTITUTIONAL TRADERS
Hi Marty,
Looking at your blog I am surprised you ever have time to sleep!
Your last article about Cb’s floating ideas just to see what happens is right on point! In Japan the stories always appeared in the gaijin newspapers – just to see how the market reacted. If markets behaved the policy was followed and they always blamed, leaks! If the market reaction was not as they intended they announced gaijin have no idea about Japanese markets.
As you know I have worked all over the globe, just let me know which one you want and I have stories on most!
Again, if I can ever help just let me know.
Stay healthy.
Best regards, A.
Sent from my iPad